Expecting the turn up

For the moment our prefered count is the bullish one.

Actually, we have two slightly different variations of it.

The first one is:ShortTerm-Bull-1

And the second one is:ShortTerm-Bull-2

As a careful reader you definitely see the small difference in the Elliott Waves counts.

But the outcome is the same, we expect the current correction, consisting of many 3 waves moves to be over soon. Then the sizeable advance above 0.02090 should take place.

We do also have a bearish count, but don’t see the needs to go for it, as it is low possibility at the moment. Only if the last low 0.01650 gets broken, will we publish that idea.

Also interesting fact. As quite some traders considering the Bitcoin to be breaking out of a long term triangle:Bit-Long

The talks are now about reaching 600, 1000, 1200 USD. We don’t want to dismiss such an outcome, but the amount of talks makes us feel at least suspicious about the market rising that strong right now.

We will publish our view on bitcoin in one of the next updates.

For now we wish these boring 3 waves moves in ETHBTC to finish asap and let the motive waves to rule the day again.

Take care and expect our next update tomorrow. Enjoy your weekend too =)

 

The Elliott Wave Principle describes the behaviour of the financial markets. This Principle is build on the mass psychology swings from pessimism to optimism and back in a natural sequence. When these swings happen, the specific Elliott wave patterns in price movements are created and become visible. Each pattern has implications regarding the position of the market within its overall progression, past, present and future.

The purpose of our blog posts is to outline the progress of markets in terms of the Elliott Wave Principle.
While a course of conduct regarding investments can be formulated from such application of the Wave Principle, at no time will my posts make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended.

Very important. Investing carries risk of losses. You should be aware of all the risks associated with investing/trading financial instruments. Information provided in this blog is expressed in good faith, but it is not guaranteed.
The market service that never makes mistakes does not exist. Long-term success trading or investing in the markets demands recognition of the fact that error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities.

This blog and the information provided here should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions.
In no event will we be liable for any loss or damage on your account in connection with the use of our publications.

Advertisements

The moment is still coming =)

We expected the resolution of the current short-term patter to happen by this time.

Well, it did’t happen yet. The market wants us to practice some more patience.

For the time being we publish update to the Elliott Waves count from yesterday:

ShortTerm-1

As one of our subscribers wanted to know how exactly we counted the first 5 waves, we placed the more detailed count. It means, we are still holding it for the most probable outcome, when ETHBTC will continue up. However, as we have had so many 3 waves movements since yesterday, we have plenty of different potentials now.

This expected move up can be short or prolonged now.

Also though not our preferred count, we see a chance for a sligh drop down.

To decide, or better to say, to read the market more precisely, we are watching for now closely two levels (see these two lines on the chart). As soon as one of them will get broken, there will be more to see, analyse and publish on our blog.

 

The Elliott Wave Principle describes the behaviour of the financial markets. This Principle is build on the mass psychology swings from pessimism to optimism and back in a natural sequence. When these swings happen, the specific Elliott wave patterns in price movements are created and become visible. Each pattern has implications regarding the position of the market within its overall progression, past, present and future.
The purpose of our blog posts is to outline the progress of markets in terms of the Elliott Wave Principle.
While a course of conduct regarding investments can be formulated from such application of the Wave Principle, at no time will my posts make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended.
Very important. Investing carries risk of losses. You should be aware of all the risks associated with investing/trading financial instruments. Information provided in this blog is expressed in good faith, but it is not guaranteed.
The market service that never makes mistakes does not exist. Long-term success trading or investing in the markets demands recognition of the fact that error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities.
This blog and the information provided here should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions.
In no event will we be liable for any loss or damage on your account in connection with the use of our publications.

Short term jerks

Are we ready to answer the important question from the last post? May be.. At least we saw something interesting on the charts and want to share it with you now.

Today we would like to go for short term chart. Why ?

One picture is better then 100 (in some cases even 108) words:

ShortTerm-1

There is finally a very nice 5 waves advance. The heart of  Every Elliott Waves analytic starts pumping the blood a bit faster after seeing such a nice pattern. In our case we had also a nice “zig-zag” correction afterwards: (a)-(b)-(c). What came however the next isn’t clear so much.

It could be:

  • another motive wave and wave (1) of (3). It means, the strong rise should follow soon.
  • another motive wave, but second part of zigzag. It means end of rise and drop again.
  • a three wave as a part of the Flat. It means the correction to that nice 5 waves move is still underway.

So, we still have some questions to be answered. Yet, as we are looking at the rather short-term charts, we should get the new price information pretty soon.

Tomorrow lunch time (european) we should have much more food on our Elliott plate.

For the time beign the important level to watch is the top of “??” (0.02085). If we brake it, the chances are we will be in a 3-d of a 3-d wave. It will be easy to recognise one, in case this is what the market prepared for us.

Take care. Plan your next trades, the picture is getting more and more clear. But then also trade you plan.

 

The Elliott Wave Principle describes the behaviour of the financial markets. This Principle is build on the mass psychology swings from pessimism to optimism and back in a natural sequence. When these swings happen, the specific Elliott wave patterns in price movements are created and become visible. Each pattern has implications regarding the position of the market within its overall progression, past, present and future.
The purpose of our blog posts is to outline the progress of markets in terms of the Elliott Wave Principle.
While a course of conduct regarding investments can be formulated from such application of the Wave Principle, at no time will my posts make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended.
Very important. Investing carries risk of losses. You should be aware of all the risks associated with investing/trading financial instruments. Information provided in this blog is expressed in good faith, but it is not guaranteed.
The market service that never makes mistakes does not exist. Long-term success trading or investing in the markets demands recognition of the fact that error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities.
This blog and the information provided here should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions.
In no event will we be liable for any loss or damage on your account in connection with the use of our publications.

Many graphics and few important questions

The price pattern became a bit more clear in the last days. We still have, however, several possibilities.

First, let us look at this Elliott Waves count:

MidTerm-1

You see “???”, where the last “bloody sunday” drop stopped. We are still not sure how to interpret the last decline from 0.030. However, it is not always the last price action which is important. One has to reflect upon the previous pattern. And here we have some “good” news. What happened to ETHBTC before looks much more clear.

This decline “A-B-C” is so classic, that we really see no reason to doubt the labeling. Wave C is almost exactly 1.618 of A. All moves were swift, also the waves A and B are clear 5 waves moves. Exactly how it is supposed to be in a “zig-zag” correction.

The rise thereafter (also marked as A-B-C) isn’t that perfect, but still looks good. An alternative for this rise would be a triangle:MidTerm-2

We don’t like it that much, mostly because the wave D is too small and it stops too far away from the rising trending line in this triangle. It is still possible, but not very probable.

So, for the moment we stick in our mid-term count to the first picture.

Now, the 1 mln. ETH question is: how to mark the “???” wave ?

We basically consider two counts at the moment. The one, which we like a bit more because of the nice proportions:

MidTerm-3
Double zig-zag

And another one, where we like the way how the retraces always reached and stopped in the area of the wave 4 of the previous degree:

MidTerm-4
5 down, need a move up and another five down

In both cases it’s possible that ETHBTC will dip slightly below 0.01740 (the last low) and then will rise.

In a “double zig-zag” case to build the third and the last one zig-zag down.

In the second case to form the wave “b” of the a-b-c Flat (marked as “B”) and then finish this Elliott pattern with “c”. Then it should work its way in the final wave “C”, consisting of 5 waves.MidTerm-5

We don’t really have preferencies at the moment. The current sentiment is unfortunately also mixed. On one side the “hope” is still quite strong, people in forums keep telling each other about fundamentals and the bright future of Ethereum. So it doesn’t look like a bottom of the correction. At least not now. On the other side, there are quite a lot of traders too, who only talks about shorting ETH, no doubting at all that it can eventually go higher. Even though it can indeed go higher right now. So may be, if we would have to make a call, based solely on the sentiment (as the Elliott Waves pattern itself is still quite unclear), we would expect market first to rise to 0.023-0.024 and then dive again.

We will see more as we get more of the price action. If we see enough to draw a pattern, we will publish update tomorrow. Otherwise, bear with us or, better to say, accept the market current uncertainty and we will come back on Thursday.

Take care. Plan your trades, trade your plans.

The Elliott Wave Principle describes the behaviour of the financial markets. This Principle is build on the mass psychology swings from pessimism to optimism and back in a natural sequence. When these swings happen, the specific Elliott wave patterns in price movements are created and become visible. Each pattern has implications regarding the position of the market within its overall progression, past, present and future.
The purpose of our blog posts is to outline the progress of markets in terms of the Elliott Wave Principle.
While a course of conduct regarding investments can be formulated from such application of the Wave Principle, at no time will my posts make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended.
Very important. Investing carries risk of losses. You should be aware of all the risks associated with investing/trading financial instruments. Information provided in this blog is expressed in good faith, but it is not guaranteed.
The market service that never makes mistakes does not exist. Long-term success trading or investing in the markets demands recognition of the fact that error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities.
This blog and the information provided here should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions.
In no event will we be liable for any loss or damage on your account in connection with the use of our publications.

Bloody Sunday

What a day today.. Ironically, our expectation of the slow rise was double invalidated. It wasn’t slow and it wasn’t also the rise. Instead we saw today quite a fierce decline.

And the trading volume on ETH is greater then one of the BTC:

24_Hour_Volume

This volume happened on a day where the ETH dropped (or as it is said in crypto-circle “was dumped”) down to the 0.01760.

On its way it also broke the mentioned in the last posts the level 0.02040, which was the key to our structure.

That is the bad news for us and I’m sure for some of the short-term bulls. Growing volume, declining price. This is not what one normally sees when the correction is reaching its end.

Still, the most important is the Elliott Waves structure. Unfortunately, at the moment short- and mid-term it’s not very clear what the market is willing to tell us.

We are waiting for some more actions to draw the new pattern.

For the time being we are changing our long-term view. Our main count reflects now the latest data. And the previous one became an alternate. We are no longer in the wave “IV”. Instead, we need to take seriously the chance that the whole 5 waves were already completed at 0.036:

LongTerm-1

We would only consider to change it back to alternate count if the ETHBTC keeps rising from the current level and will surpass the previous ATH (all time high) at 0.036

Finally, we observed today quite a lot of pain and even panic on the forums and chats. It doesn’t yet feel like a desperate pain, as some people still keep asking “is it a bottom ? no. and now ?”. If it would be a completed correction from the whole I-II-III-IV-V move, almost nobody would believe in ETH anymore. There would also be some terrible news for the Ethereum plattform in general. We don’t see it yet.

So, either it wasn’t this biggest correction or it’s not yet over.

Time will tell.

Meanwhile we keep watching the market and collecting all the relevant information.

The next update will come most probably on Tuesday. We want market to show a bit more of action, so that we can draw a pattern, based on the price action solely.

As always, take care. Today we were teached how volatile and crazy cryptomarket can be. Even on Sunday.

The Elliott Wave Principle describes the behaviour of the financial markets. This Principle is build on the mass psychology swings from pessimism to optimism and back in a natural sequence. When these swings happen, the specific Elliott wave patterns in price movements are created and become visible. Each pattern has implications regarding the position of the market within its overall progression, past, present and future.
The purpose of our blog posts is to outline the progress of markets in terms of the Elliott Wave Principle.
While a course of conduct regarding investments can be formulated from such application of the Wave Principle, at no time will my posts make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended.
Very important. Investing carries risk of losses. You should be aware of all the risks associated with investing/trading financial instruments. Information provided in this blog is expressed in good faith, but it is not guaranteed.
The market service that never makes mistakes does not exist. Long-term success trading or investing in the markets demands recognition of the fact that error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities.
This blog and the information provided here should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions.
In no event will we be liable for any loss or damage on your account in connection with the use of our publications.

Saturday (slow?) rise

The last jerks on the way down looks finished by now. We did make one more minor low yesterday. As we believe and said in the last report, even more bulls now abandoned the idea of ETHBTC growing immediate from the current level. Ironically, however, this is exactly what could happen now.

See this beautiful pattern:

MidTerm-Bullish-1

The 5 waves decline is divided exactly by the Fibonacci 0.618 at the point where wave 1 stopped. Correction in wave 2 was complex one, where the correction in the wave 4 was fast and simple one (zigzag a-b-c). Wave 3 is 1.618 extension of the wave 1. Basically, it looks like almost the perfect 5 waves move. The only “not fully normal” fact is that the corrective wave 2 is complex and shallow, because in a “perfect” impulsive pattern wave 2 tends to be deep and swift one. But that is exactly what makes Elliott Waves analysis so exciting and demanding work for a analyst. Every case is somehow unique.

As we said before, one has to keep the mind open and be ready to adjust the structure to what the market tells. Not vica versa.

Is there is anything what will make us change the current bullish stand ? Yes, sure. In case we move below 0.02040, the bullish structure we are following on this blog will be invalidtaed and we will have to change it.

Just to remind you, this is our long-term view:

LongTerm-Bullish-1

Take care,  read the opinions of others but always make your own decisions. No one is right 100 % of the time. We aren’t too and we don’t know anyone who is.

Plane your trade, trade your plan.

The Elliott Wave Principle describes the behaviour of the financial markets. This Principle is build on the mass psychology swings from pessimism to optimism and back in a natural sequence. When these swings happen, the specific Elliott wave patterns in price movements are created and become visible. Each pattern has implications regarding the position of the market within its overall progression, past, present and future.
The purpose of our blog posts is to outline the progress of markets in terms of the Elliott Wave Principle.
While a course of conduct regarding investments can be formulated from such application of the Wave Principle, at no time will my posts make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended.
Very important. Investing carries risk of losses. You should be aware of all the risks associated with investing/trading financial instruments. Information provided in this blog is expressed in good faith, but it is not guaranteed.
The market service that never makes mistakes does not exist. Long-term success trading or investing in the markets demands recognition of the fact that error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities.
This blog and the information provided here should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions.
In no event will we be liable for any loss or damage on your account in connection with the use of our publications.