Trend should turn now

We are glad to receive some warm feedback. It is a good feeling to have communication in both sides.

The market has also spoken and we are listening carefully to what he wants to tell us. As we said in the last post: “If, however, we do rise a bit up from the current level and then go down to slightly below 0.02350, make sure not to turn bearish. If even the temptation is strong.”. We hope after this last drop to 0.02340 none of our readers turned too much bearish. Because the decline down looks complete. There could however be one more minor drop to 0.02320. That will definately scare away some more bulls and will lead some more bears into the trap.

But let us take a look on a bigger picture again:

FinishedStructure-1

The Flat structure we discussed yesterday looks complete now. We have clear 3 waves down: “W”, then corrective pattern up: “X” which took us almost back to the origination of the “W” and then very nice 5 waves down, where the wave 3 has the most classic Fibonacci ratio of the wave 1 ->1.618. For the wave 5 the perfect bottom would come at 0.02320, because then it would be 100 % of the wave 1, but one can’t demand from the market to be all the time perfect. Besides, we see a clear divergence between the price decline (we made the new low) and the RSI, which didn’t make it. It’s also additional signature of the wave 5.

We are looking now for a 5 wave advance from around the current level. There are also some othe metrics we are watching at the moment to confirm the trend reversal. But we will discuss them in the next post. Because the structure (pattern) is the most important part in the Elliott Waves analysis.

As before, our call for an advance is valid as long as the price stays above 0.02040. If that level is broken, we will have to reconsider the current count.

Take care and as always, plan your trade, trade you plan.

The next update will be published on Saturday.

The Elliott Wave Principle describes the behaviour of the financial markets. This Principle is build on the mass psychology swings from pessimism to optimism and back in a natural sequence. When these swings happen, the specific Elliott wave patterns in price movements are created and become visible. Each pattern has implications regarding the position of the market within its overall progression, past, present and future.
The purpose of our blog posts is to outline the progress of markets in terms of the Elliott Wave Principle.
While a course of conduct regarding investments can be formulated from such application of the Wave Principle, at no time will my posts make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended.
Very important. Investing carries risk of losses. You should be aware of all the risks associated with investing/trading financial instruments. Information provided in this blog is expressed in good faith, but it is not guaranteed.
The market service that never makes mistakes does not exist. Long-term success trading or investing in the markets demands recognition of the fact that error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities.
This blog and the information provided here should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions.
In no event will we be liable for any loss or damage on your account in connection with the use of our publications.

We are at the interesting point.

Somehow it’s a bit strange that we were again right in our call in the last post. Who doesn’t like it to be right, yes? But the truth is that no one can be right all the time. The financial markets are too complex and volatile, means changing often and fast. It’s easy to get stuck to the idea of the market which isn’t correct anymore. We hope we will be able to recognise the changes on time and adjust our Elliott Waves count as fast as possible when these changes take place.

For the moment the bear structure continued as expected. Let us repost the second and the most probable (as we assumed yesterday) Elliott Wave pattern from our last analysis:

MidTerm-Bullish-2
Enter a caption

Today we try to answer the second part of the question: “how long bears will stay in control?”. As we can see from the price action as of now:

IsItFinishedStructure-1

ETHBTC indeed went slightly below 0.024 and recovered up to 0.02590.

We would like the structure more, if ETHBTC would make one more low (that’s why you see the wave 4 up and then again decline in the wave 5). It is not required, however. The look and feel of decline as of now is already good to consider it to be completed. If, however, we do rise a bit up from the current level and then go down to slightly below 0.02350, make sure not to turn bearish. If even the temptation is strong.

Better to turn bullish. With a SL below 0.02040

We want to see more structure to develop before we post the next analysis, so that our call is purely based on the Elliott Waves patterns. Could take one more day, then we will post update tomorrow. Or could take a bit longer, then we will come online on Saturday.

Take care and use the analytic (this or any other) to define your best Risk/Reward strategy.

The Elliott Wave Principle describes the behaviour of the financial markets. This Principle is build on the mass psychology swings from pessimism to optimism and back in a natural sequence. When these swings happen, the specific Elliott wave patterns in price movements are created and become visible. Each pattern has implications regarding the position of the market within its overall progression, past, present and future.
The purpose of our blog posts is to outline the progress of markets in terms of the Elliott Wave Principle.
While a course of conduct regarding investments can be formulated from such application of the Wave Principle, at no time will my posts make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended.
Very important. Investing carries risk of losses. You should be aware of all the risks associated with investing/trading financial instruments. Information provided in this blog is expressed in good faith, but it is not guaranteed.
The market service that never makes mistakes does not exist. Long-term success trading or investing in the markets demands recognition of the fact that error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities.
This blog and the information provided here should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions.
In no event will we be liable for any loss or damage on your account in connection with the use of our publications.

Bears are in control. How long ?

The predicted move down has taken place. The 1 mln. $ question (or should it be 100.000 ETH?) is how deep will it take ETHBTC now?

As promised, today we will take clsoer look at the bullish potentials.

First, the possibility with almost immediate bullish turn:MidTerm-Bullish-1

Here, after completing the leading diagonal “1” we had an “a – triangle b – c” correction. At the moment the wave “c” is very close to the 100 % extension of the wave “a”, which is the most often relationship. The volume increased during the fall down, which is also absolutely normal. And the sentiment is quite ripe for a turn. As we can see from chats, dedicated to cryptotrading, there are way more bears now then the bulls.

But. There is one “but”. Somehow this leading diagonal “1” doesn’t feel really good. First, as we said before, we have never seen it before, to have two leading diagonals one after another. Surely it’s possible, but how probable is it?

Anyway, for this case to be true, the level -> 0.02350, it can’t be broken. This is the SL for those who want to take long position right now.

Let us then take a look at the second bullish potential. in case 0.02350 will get broken and this leading diagonal “1” will be invalidated:MidTerm-Bullish-2

One picture is better then 100 words, yet some words are required too. We already took a look at this possible structure in our last post. Here we strongly believe, that we had a leading diagonal (marked “I” in the top left corner). Where does this strong believe comes from? It looks good, had clear 5 overlapping waves and the clear “w-x-y” (alltogether marked as “blue w”) correction thereafter. In case the rise from that “blue w” was just another corrective wave up, we could get the shown here Elliott Waves structures, called “Flat”. Normally it would end slightly below “blue w” (0.02350), but there is also variation, called “irregular Flat”. In this case it will stop above this level.

All in one, as more traders truning bearish on ETHBTC, we are turning bullish.

The next planned update is tomorrow, Wednesday (european evening time). In case one of the discussed today structure will be finished earlier, we might publish short update today in the night.

Take care and, as always, plan your trade and trade your plan. Use any analytic as a plan tool only. Use your discipline to trade.

The Elliott Wave Principle describes the behaviour of the financial markets. This Principle is build on the mass psychology swings from pessimism to optimism and back in a natural sequence. When these swings happen, the specific Elliott wave patterns in price movements are created and become visible. Each pattern has implications regarding the position of the market within its overall progression, past, present and future.
The purpose of our blog posts is to outline the progress of markets in terms of the Elliott Wave Principle.
While a course of conduct regarding investments can be formulated from such application of the Wave Principle, at no time will my posts make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended.
Very important. Investing carries risk of losses. You should be aware of all the risks associated with investing/trading financial instruments. Information provided in this blog is expressed in good faith, but it is not guaranteed.
The market service that never makes mistakes does not exist. Long-term success trading or investing in the markets demands recognition of the fact that error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities.
This blog and the information provided here should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions.
In no event will we be liable for any loss or damage on your account in connection with the use of our publications.

Quiet Sunday.

None of the levels, mentioned at the end of the last post, has been reached. It means we don’t have to add anything totally new to the ETHBTC price description. Patience is the key at the moment.

To show some possible outcomes of the current price action we draw several equally possible potential patterns.

MidTerm-Bearish-1

If that is what market has prepared for us, then we should see pretty swift decline down to around 0.025 with the almost immediate rise back up to 0.02750. This is the way how the thrust from the triangle develops. First, fast move in the direction of the previous bigger trend (that was the 5 wave decline, marked here as “a”) and then move back to the origin of the thrust (marked here as the wave “b”)

It is possible, however, to see the current picture in the following light:

MidTerm-Bearish-2

Here we will see several impulsive movements down (at least two more, waves 3 and 5) to finish the correction of the previous leading diagonal from 0.02350 to 0.02940

And here yet another picture to explain more in details about the “alternate count”:MidTerm-Bearish-3

This pattern represents a variation of the Flat. It consists of 3 waves down (blue “W”), then 3 up (blue “X”) and at the end 5 down (blue “Y”). All together it would build then the complete correction for the diagonal wave “I”, giving enough room and sentiment for a substantial rise in the wave “III”.

As we see now, there are at the moment too many different open options. This is due to the fact that there are generally many types of corrective waves. Besides, some of them have also quite some number of variations. So for Elliott Waves analyst it’s always not boring but rather time consuming, trying to figure out which exactly corrective pattern is taking place now.

Bottom line: we still keep watching some important levels and the structure which will develop by the moment price will reach these levels. These are:

  • 0.02350 on the way down
  • 0.02940 on the way up

I’m not sure yet if we will be able to post update tomorrow or only the day after tomorrow. When we do it, however, we will spend more time on the potential bullish structures. Though not discussed today, we have quite some even in the current market position.

The most important thing for the moment is that the leading diagonal from 0.02050 to 0.03 means the bigger trend is up. And we keep our midterm bullish call as long as this level (0.02050) isn’t broken.

Take care and don’t forget, any analytic has only one goal – define your entry, SL and TP levels in a way that Risk/Reward defines your long term success.

The Elliott Wave Principle describes the behaviour of the financial markets. This Principle is build on the mass psychology swings from pessimism to optimism and back in a natural sequence. When these swings happen, the specific Elliott wave patterns in price movements are created and become visible. Each pattern has implications regarding the position of the market within its overall progression, past, present and future.
The purpose of my blog posts is to outline the progress of markets in terms of the Elliott Wave Principle.
While a course of conduct regarding investments can be formulated from such application of the Wave Principle, at no time will my posts make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended.
Very important. Investing carries risk of losses. You should be aware of all the risks associated with investing/trading financial instruments. Information provided in this blog is expressed in good faith, but it is not guaranteed.
The market service that never makes mistakes does not exist. Long-term success trading or investing in the markets demands recognition of the fact that error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities.
This blog and the information provided here should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions.
In no event will we be liable for any loss or damage on your account in connection with the use of our publications.

The tension is growing

So we are here, on the 2nd of April. The market kept moving in the direction as we we discussed yesterday. Status: down a bit.

Now comes the question, what’s next ?

In order to answer this question let us take a look at the bigger timeframe. It will also explain why I keep quite bullish stance, despite the short term decline.

Here is the 2 Hour chart:MidTerm

So, what do we have here? Actually, very interesting picture. The leading wedge. It’s pretty rare pattern in itself. But we seem to have two of them! ETHBTC somehow likes to build diagonals? Looks like it does, and normally this has a reason.

The diagonals take place where there is a kind of balance between bulls and bears. Bulls are still a little bit stronger but not strong enough to build a new standard impulsive wave. The leading diagonals are always retraced deep because of these almost balanced forces. So, we see wave “I” retraced a bit deeper then 0.618. This is where wave “II” finished and immediately became the next leading diagonal!

To be honest, I’ve never seen two diagonals right after another. I keep a very close look on how the whole structure developes. But, if I take the general sentiment into account, it makes somehow sense, to have two diagonals. On one side, we have plenty of great supporting activity on Ethereum, on the other side we have so much positive news for the Ethereum lately, yet the price isn’t able even the brake the 0.03. Therefore it is no wonder that quite some traders are turning quite bearish at the moment. Eventhough the first DAO crowdsell went like a storm, collecting 5.5 mln in just about 14 Hours !

As a trader, what should one do in this situation ?

Observe the critical levels and check how the Elliott Waves structure develops.

The levels we are closlely monitoring are:

  • if we go slightly below 0.02570 and then rise above 0.02850, the main count will be confirmed
  • if we go below 0.02350, the leading diagonal 1 will be invalidated, and we will need to check the structure of the wave down from 0.02950 more closely to see if it fits the alternate count
  • finally, should ETHBTC suddenly brake 0.02950 on the way up (before going below levels, mentioned above), it would make a strong case for the wave 3, which is also a part of “III” and should be the most erratic advances during the next weeks.

Take care and stay tuned. I will post the next update tomorrow in the evening (european time)

The Elliott Wave Principle describes the behaviour of the financial markets. This Principle is build on the mass psychology swings from pessimism to optimism and back in a natural sequence. When these swings happen, the specific Elliott wave patterns in price movements are created and become visible. Each pattern has implications regarding the position of the market within its overall progression, past, present and future.
The purpose of my blog posts is to outline the progress of markets in terms of the Elliott Wave Principle.
While a course of conduct regarding investments can be formulated from such application of the Wave Principle, at no time will my posts make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended.
Very important. Investing carries risk of losses. You should be aware of all the risks associated with investing/trading financial instruments. Information provided in this blog is expressed in good faith, but it is not guaranteed.
The market service that never makes mistakes does not exist. Long-term success trading or investing in the markets demands recognition of the fact that error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities.
This blog and the information provided here should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions.
In no event will we be liable for any loss or damage on your account in connection with the use of our publications.

No joke. Again a bit down !

We start today with a a very clear 5 waves structure on the short term frame. And it shows us the most probable direction for the next few days, which is down. Which five ? From the top of 0.02940 till the bottom last night of 0.02680 (marked “(1) or a”) we can easily recognise these 5 waves. What implication does it have ? First of all, after the completion of such a pattern a partial retracement will take place. This is exactly what happened this morning and this retracement reached classic Fibonacci level of 0.618 at 0.02850.

ShortTerm

Now the best market could do is just continue the decline below 0.02680. It could however, shortly pop above 0.02850 and continue the decline just from there. Then, after the next leg is finished we could see more of the structure. It could be a-b-c, then we start advance right after this decline is over. It could also morph into the whole 5 waves down. In case we see these bigger 5 waves decline, does it mean we turn compelety bearish ? Not really. Here is the bigger picture, giving the chance and place for such a decline and yet keeping us on bullish stance.

MidTerm

All in one, we are bearish for the next day or two. We want to see more of the Elliott Waves structure to identify the current market phase more precisely.

Next update will be published tomorrow, on the 2-d of April.

The Elliott Wave Principle describes the behaviour of the financial markets. This Principle is build onĀ  the mass psychology swings from pessimism to optimism and back in a natural sequence. When these swings happen, the specific Elliott wave patterns in price movements are created and become visible. Each pattern has implications regarding the position of the market within its overall progression, past, present and future.
The purpose of my blog posts is to outline the progress of markets in terms of the Elliott Wave Principle.
While a course of conduct regarding investments can be formulated from such application of the Wave Principle, at no time will my posts make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended.
Very important. Investing carries risk of losses. You should be aware of all the risks associated with investing/trading financial instruments. Information provided in this blog is expressed in good faith, but it is not guaranteed.
The market service that never makes mistakes does not exist. Long-term success trading or investing in the markets demands recognition of the fact that error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities.
This blogĀ  and the information provided here should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions.
In no event will we be liable for any loss or damage on your account in connection with the use of our publications.