ETH and BTC goals are reached. What’s next?

As we discussed in the last article, the expected goal for ETH around 11 EUR was reached pretty easily. But today we won’t talk much about ETH. Next update will be solely for ETH.

Rather we come back directly to BTC..

As we mentioned in the same last post, the crowd was getting too positive and very few believed we could drop below  $800. We expected this however and warned the readers…

The author is trying its best to “keep the balance”. It means not to get too much excited when everyone is. But also not be too much scared when the crowd starts panicking.

At the moment seems like everyone is scared regarding the BTC and its sudden “made in China” problems.

This is the time where we believe we need to write few lines again.

Look at this chart first:global_market_cap_trendlineWhat we have now is most probably a correction.. And this correction should be over soon. Might even happen today or tomorrow. But as long as this trend line isn’t clearly broken, nothing really bad happened to the crypto..

Let us also dive a bit deeper into the BTC charts. Who knows may be we will see some patterns? We like Elliott Waves patterns!

btcusdlong

The author leaves a bit more than usual notation on the chart. Otherwise it is difficult to show how many aspects one needs to take into account while analyzing the markets according to Elliott Waves..

The bottom line: we have opposite situation to the one  when the talked the last time. The BTC is much closer to the bottom now than to the top. Everything is changing..

Have a nice day.

The Elliott Wave Principle describes the behaviour of the financial markets. This Principle is build on the mass psychology swings from pessimism to optimism and back in a natural sequence. When these swings happen, the specific Elliott wave patterns in price movements are created and become visible. Each pattern has implications regarding the position of the market within its overall progression, past, present and future.
The purpose of our blog posts is to outline the progress of markets in terms of the Elliott Wave Principle.
While a course of conduct regarding investments can be formulated from such application of the Wave Principle, at no time will my posts make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended.
Very important. Investing carries risk of losses. You should be aware of all the risks associated with investing/trading financial instruments. Information provided in this blog is expressed in good faith, but it is not guaranteed.
The market service that never makes mistakes does not exist. Long-term success trading or investing in the markets demands recognition of the fact that error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities.
This blog and the information provided here should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions.
In no event will we be liable for any loss or damage on your account in connection with the use of our publications.
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The year started pretty active

What a start into the New Year!

BTC crossed $1000 without any hesitation. With this we have the official break out in the crypto:Global_Market_Cap_2017_01.png

Though we expected the intermediate top to be built below $1000, well, the market has different opinion on it..

To understand better our “sentiment” approach to the crypto markets let us check what we said back in Mai 2016 about Bitcoin:

“…The sentiment is amazingly pessimistic at the moment. For instance, is anyone who is reading this blog, consider buying BTC? No? Why? Too many bad news for poor bitcoin?”

Negative sentiment was one of the reason for the author to keep doing bullish calls on BTC throughout the year (except the correction part in July, which we also got correctly).

Now we are about to reach the opposite extreme. To illustrate it..How many of you consider the possibility  for BTC to drop to $800? And to $500? Well, we believe there are still some, but definitely much less than just few weeks ago. At the moment when no one believes anymore that we will ever see $800, this is exactly what will happen, drop down to around this level. The level itself is based on Elliott Waves patterns, but the price and time when this drop will start will be determined by the crowd sentiment.

We will publish the BTC chart in one of the next updates, now let us come back to ETH.

As expected in our last letter, ETHBTC did make the new low, though it was not as deep as we thought. “Only” 0.0073 ETHBTC was reached. 0.006 would be better from the pattern point of view, but we can’t demand from the market too much.. For the moment we leave the possibility for ETHBTC to stay depressed and may be to make one more low.

For ETH in Fiat (USD or EUR) however, the picture is quite different:etheurmidtermAfter decisively breaking the trend-line, we very likely have finally the trend change. There is a chance for ETH to come down and do the last “kiss the trend-line and go”. The next goal, however, is around 11 in EUR and 13 in USD.

have a nice start into the year too !

The Elliott Wave Principle describes the behaviour of the financial markets. This Principle is build on the mass psychology swings from pessimism to optimism and back in a natural sequence. When these swings happen, the specific Elliott wave patterns in price movements are created and become visible. Each pattern has implications regarding the position of the market within its overall progression, past, present and future.
The purpose of our blog posts is to outline the progress of markets in terms of the Elliott Wave Principle.
While a course of conduct regarding investments can be formulated from such application of the Wave Principle, at no time will my posts make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended.
Very important. Investing carries risk of losses. You should be aware of all the risks associated with investing/trading financial instruments. Information provided in this blog is expressed in good faith, but it is not guaranteed.
The market service that never makes mistakes does not exist. Long-term success trading or investing in the markets demands recognition of the fact that error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities.
This blog and the information provided here should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions.
In no event will we be liable for any loss or damage on your account in connection with the use of our publications.

What is this blog for?

“Buying the lows and selling the highs” is difficult for everyone. There’s a reason why we have “hodlers” and “bag holders”. The first group hopes their asset will rise above their starting point, and the second has accepted reality – that they “bought the high”, mostly in FOMO (fear of missing out).

The author addresses this and other aspects of crypto investing/trading (he has experienced buying the highs himself, also…).

Generally, this blog is an attempt to bring a different type of energy to the crypto trading world. The author has practiced yoga and meditation daily for more than 10 years, and also has more than 10 years experience analyzing financial markets (largely based on Elliott Waves theory and sentiment analyses).

As there are many misconceptions and some odd beliefs out there, the author thought to share what he has learned to be an effective way of analyzing the markets.

If you keep reading this blog, you’ll notice that the articles are mostly of a “contrarian” nature. When the trading crowd becomes too excited, you’ll hear the author speaking words of caution. And when fellow traders are getting desperate, you might find some lights of hope here in the moments of darkness.

That’s why we say its a different energy… or, as the author is also known in some circles with his second name… “balance”. By reading the tipping points, we can maintain balance in an ever-changing landscape and (hopefully) make better decisions.

It is important to understand that this blog is not trading advice. No trading recommendations are given here. Crypto assets are analyzed from a strictly educational point of view.

What assets do we cover? Mostly ETH, though lately we’ve also focused on BTC, and even XMR and ETC on occasion. Heck, we even mentioned AMP once (as it was an interesting case)!

One final word… bigger work is taking place on the santiment.net platform. If you’re interested in crypto market psychology, feel free to check it out.

P.S. You can read the previous version of the introduction here.

The last drop in ETH and we are done

That took some time before the author can say that – “the last drop..”

Let’s go directly to the charts:ethbtclongGreen Elliott Waves count is exactly the reason why we might still need one more bottom. Wave 5 isn’t completed yet.

The target lies somewhere around 0.006. Hopefully that will generate finally the almost complete capitulation and ETH can finally grow through the “wall of constant worry”. One might expect some unpleasant and unexpected “bad” news for ETH too. What exactly it will be, no one can say for sure, but there must be something depressing…

This “bottom-making” process should also correspond with the last few pushes up in BTC. After winning the battle for $800, that would be strange if BTC won’t try the best to conquer the $1000 too. Here, however, the crowd mood decides everything. As long as there are doubts and worries (as we have it now), we have some “fuel” for the price to increase. When these last voices are gone and the strong believe in the bright (dominant) future of BTC is here, we will announce the BTC top officially..

By the way, the “wishful” thinking in ETH crowd regarding the double bottom is one of the reasons why the author believes we need yet to dive below the last low one more time.

Have nice holidays !

The Elliott Wave Principle describes the behaviour of the financial markets. This Principle is build on the mass psychology swings from pessimism to optimism and back in a natural sequence. When these swings happen, the specific Elliott wave patterns in price movements are created and become visible. Each pattern has implications regarding the position of the market within its overall progression, past, present and future.
The purpose of our blog posts is to outline the progress of markets in terms of the Elliott Wave Principle.
While a course of conduct regarding investments can be formulated from such application of the Wave Principle, at no time will my posts make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended.
Very important. Investing carries risk of losses. You should be aware of all the risks associated with investing/trading financial instruments. Information provided in this blog is expressed in good faith, but it is not guaranteed.
The market service that never makes mistakes does not exist. Long-term success trading or investing in the markets demands recognition of the fact that error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities.
This blog and the information provided here should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions.
In no event will we be liable for any loss or damage on your account in connection with the use of our publications.

BTC mid-term chart.

As mentioned in the last post, not to do anything is often the best decision a trader can make. The chances for ETH to rise (and BTC to drop) looked somehow a bit better. But the sentiment was too mixed, so we decided to stay sidelined. Which appeared to be a good idea.

But today the picture is different. We are slowly seeing the specific pattern and picture on the screen evolving every day layer by layer. And this pattern is somehow pretty familiar..

BTC breached the level of $800 in BTC, were we expected some battle for the last several weeks. So, what’s next? All time high?

The author doesn’t think so…At least not now. The charts are telling story about the very close top:

btcusdlongterm$850 seems to be reasonable as the final target. Wave 5 then will be the same size as wave 1. The only difficult part with crypto currencies is the fact that sometimes they behave crazy in the 5-th wave.

Therefore guessing exact price is risky and difficult task if base it only on charts in crypto.

Sentiment is the key for success here.

Expect big news on at least major crypto online boards (coin desk should have the most loud voice). May be increase in SegWit adoption will manifest itself “suddenly”.

There must be something what finally will make everyone (well, almost everyone) believe that BTC is indeed the king and noting can stop it.

Watch for this kind of sentiment and you will know where the top is.

In the next update (in the next few days) we will look closely at ETH. There the picture is almost opposite. We are finishing the 5-th wave down. What it means and how exactly it looks? Everyone (well, almost) will be worrying again.. Or are you in this mood already?

Stay tuned, till the next few days.

The Elliott Wave Principle describes the behaviour of the financial markets. This Principle is build on the mass psychology swings from pessimism to optimism and back in a natural sequence. When these swings happen, the specific Elliott wave patterns in price movements are created and become visible. Each pattern has implications regarding the position of the market within its overall progression, past, present and future.
The purpose of our blog posts is to outline the progress of markets in terms of the Elliott Wave Principle.
While a course of conduct regarding investments can be formulated from such application of the Wave Principle, at no time will my posts make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended.
Very important. Investing carries risk of losses. You should be aware of all the risks associated with investing/trading financial instruments. Information provided in this blog is expressed in good faith, but it is not guaranteed.
The market service that never makes mistakes does not exist. Long-term success trading or investing in the markets demands recognition of the fact that error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities.
This blog and the information provided here should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions.
In no event will we be liable for any loss or damage on your account in connection with the use of our publications.

AMP (Synereo) is a very interesting case

Why Synereo is an interesting case now?

Here we have a lot of really bad news on one side. In order not to repeat much, just read this document. It represents the view only from one side, but shows pretty clear how deep is the conflict inside the team.

There are also calls from investors to make a refund for the crowdsale.

Generally, almost no one consider to get into AMP (Synereos token) now.

But let’s look on the chart:ampbtcWave 3 is the perfect 2.618 of the wave 1. Wave 2 is clear zigzag, wave 4 is a triangle. To be honest it is one of the best 5 waves the author saw this year in crypto. And what we expect after the 5 waves down are completed, combined with such a negative sentiment we witness?

The rise.

Sounds strange and irrational when the project seem to be falling apart? But the trading/investing is pretty much exactly this – most of the time irrational and against ones deep emotion. Buy when the fear is at the strongest. Sell when the excitement is so strong that you actually want to buy more..

What is the target? Around 0.00014. Why? The wave 4 was a triangle, it is usual to have a pretty swift retrace to the origin of the thrust. In our case it was somewhere around 0.00014.

This is not a trading advice, as usual. But see it as an education on how TA (technical analyses), combined with sentiment analyses (investigation of the crowd emotions) work together.

As for ETH.. There is slightly higher chance to go up and test 0.01450 than to fall down to retest 0.08. Why? Because of BTC (not shown today) – it looks ripe for a swift drop to around $730.

ethbtcmidterm

Sow why author stays away from this trade?

Because it is more profitable in the long-term to trade not so often but stroger (80-20) setups. Where we have 80% chances for success with 20% risk. The ETH long now is like 60% with 40% risk.

enjoy the weekend!

The Elliott Wave Principle describes the behaviour of the financial markets. This Principle is build on the mass psychology swings from pessimism to optimism and back in a natural sequence. When these swings happen, the specific Elliott wave patterns in price movements are created and become visible. Each pattern has implications regarding the position of the market within its overall progression, past, present and future.
The purpose of our blog posts is to outline the progress of markets in terms of the Elliott Wave Principle.
While a course of conduct regarding investments can be formulated from such application of the Wave Principle, at no time will my posts make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended.
Very important. Investing carries risk of losses. You should be aware of all the risks associated with investing/trading financial instruments. Information provided in this blog is expressed in good faith, but it is not guaranteed.
The market service that never makes mistakes does not exist. Long-term success trading or investing in the markets demands recognition of the fact that error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities.
This blog and the information provided here should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions.
In no event will we be liable for any loss or damage on your account in connection with the use of our publications.

The pressure on ETH is going down. For how long?

As expected in the previous update, we indeed experienced more pressure in ETH.

Actually, it was quite intense.. The priced even dived shortly below 0.008 (what was actually our final goal for the complete decline, not just for this part). So we need to adjust the Elliott Waves count a bit now:

ETHBTCMidTerm.png

The last drop coincided with the famous now hack of Bob Shen This kind of events sometimes marks the bottoms. But sometimes also not. So it’s better not to rely just on one fact.

If we look just at the pure Elliott Waves count, we could see two things:

  • The last sharp decline formed the ending diagonal (check the chart below). It means we should recover pretty fast to the origin of the decline, which is around 0.014
  • The 5 waves down aren’t finished yet. It is difficult to imagine at the moment that ETH will drop below 0.008 yet once again. There seem to be quite a lot of buying power right now. But things can change fast in crypto…

So, the author would expect the continued growth up to somewhere around 0.014 with a possibility to see another (final) wave of decline. On the chart above you might have noticed that this final wave 5 is placed above the last low. This is just to illustrate that sometime the wave 5 gets a “truncation”. Not that rare pattern in crypto, by the way. The author sees it from time to time. May be this is because the emotions are very tensed and intensive, so the structures are just reflecting the power of the crowd emotions.

Here is the last chart for today, where you can see the ending diagonal:ethbtcmidterm2

Enjoy your time!

The Elliott Wave Principle describes the behaviour of the financial markets. This Principle is build on the mass psychology swings from pessimism to optimism and back in a natural sequence. When these swings happen, the specific Elliott wave patterns in price movements are created and become visible. Each pattern has implications regarding the position of the market within its overall progression, past, present and future.
The purpose of our blog posts is to outline the progress of markets in terms of the Elliott Wave Principle.
While a course of conduct regarding investments can be formulated from such application of the Wave Principle, at no time will my posts make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended.
Very important. Investing carries risk of losses. You should be aware of all the risks associated with investing/trading financial instruments. Information provided in this blog is expressed in good faith, but it is not guaranteed.
The market service that never makes mistakes does not exist. Long-term success trading or investing in the markets demands recognition of the fact that error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities.
This blog and the information provided here should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions.
In no event will we be liable for any loss or damage on your account in connection with the use of our publications.