Time to see the bigger picture

What a few months. ETH made a top. Market proved to be irrational longer than we expected, still the “overhyped” conditions can’t last for ever.

Now, when we witness this awaited ETH decline and the news are making rounds that SEC is taking care of ICO in general and ETH (“the DAO”) in particular, time to look carefully again at the charts. They always have all the information needed..

ETHBTCLongWe are in the wave “iv”, the correction which should normally behave differently if compared to the corrective wave “ii”. Wave “ii” was very long (around 9 months) and pretty complicated one. It was felt like slow and painful bleeding. What should we expect from the wave “iv” then? somewhere between 2 and 4 months. Fast and furious one. The target seems to be between 0.04 and 0.06

As for the fiat prices, let’s have a look at the USD chart:

ETHUSDLongThe current rise has been already nicely corrected to the usual 61,8%. One more drop slightly towards $100-$120 would make the correction perfect. It is not required, however, the rise towards the new high can start from the current level already.

It can be, for instance, fueled by the possible BTC rise to the new ATH (all time high). We will look into the BTC charts in the next updates. There is one very interesting long-term observation there to see.

Till then stay safe and also remember the panic in crypto is followed by the waves of hype. Buy low in crypto means to buy during the panics. Where selling high will demand to stay reasonable, don’t be greedy and to sell when there are too many insane expectations and too many newcomers are flooding the market.

Try to stay balanced. If it appears to be difficult at times, come over to this blog.

We have always tried to “balanced out” the emotionally waves in the crypto market.

The Elliott Wave Principle describes the behaviour of the financial markets. This Principle is build on the mass psychology swings from pessimism to optimism and back in a natural sequence. When these swings happen, the specific Elliott wave patterns in price movements are created and become visible. Each pattern has implications regarding the position of the market within its overall progression, past, present and future.
The purpose of our blog posts is to outline the progress of markets in terms of the Elliott Wave Principle.
While a course of conduct regarding investments can be formulated from such application of the Wave Principle, at no time will my posts make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended.
Very important. Investing carries risk of losses. You should be aware of all the risks associated with investing/trading financial instruments. Information provided in this blog is expressed in good faith, but it is not guaranteed.
The market service that never makes mistakes does not exist. Long-term success trading or investing in the markets demands recognition of the fact that error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities.
This blog and the information provided here should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions.
In no event will we be liable for any loss or damage on your account in connection with the use of our publications.
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Decentralisation in action

Short update.

The ETH moved to the expected ranges in the BTC ratio. ETHBTCLongTwo waves. The relationship between them 1,61. The second one looks like very nicely formed 5 waves move (green numbers). While the wave IV made the new high, the volume dropped.

What does it mean in “human language”?

ETH advance to take the place Nr.1 in cryptospace will most likely stop for now. BTC is about to gain some losses back (as ETHBTC ratio will correct down).

In some time we will probably see the “unusual” distribution between BTC, ETH and few other coins where no one could claim the “king of the crypto universe” anymore.

Decentralisation in action..

Regarding the BTC. There are some mounting signs that we might see the top soon too. Spiegel.de wrote recently an article on BTC and they usually do it close to the top. Sometimes shortly before, sometimes shortly thereafter. That was the case with the previous (2013) BTC meteoric rise, also with Gold, Oil, USD or EUR. The story repeats itself constantly. So, if even if BTC manages to break through $2000, cautious is the key.

The real performers, anyway, are currently outside the bigger players.

They are smaller caps, which are easier to “pump” for the big speculators. We see it already now and the trend will only increase over the course of the next months.

Find your way there. Have a nice summer time.

The Elliott Wave Principle describes the behaviour of the financial markets. This Principle is build on the mass psychology swings from pessimism to optimism and back in a natural sequence. When these swings happen, the specific Elliott wave patterns in price movements are created and become visible. Each pattern has implications regarding the position of the market within its overall progression, past, present and future.
The purpose of our blog posts is to outline the progress of markets in terms of the Elliott Wave Principle.
While a course of conduct regarding investments can be formulated from such application of the Wave Principle, at no time will my posts make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended.
Very important. Investing carries risk of losses. You should be aware of all the risks associated with investing/trading financial instruments. Information provided in this blog is expressed in good faith, but it is not guaranteed.
The market service that never makes mistakes does not exist. Long-term success trading or investing in the markets demands recognition of the fact that error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities.
This blog and the information provided here should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions.
In no event will we be liable for any loss or damage on your account in connection with the use of our publications.

The possible top for ETH

From our last update the market choose the second option (thrust out of the triangle). This seem to be the way to finish the wave 5.

In this update we will have many charts. As always don’t take anything here as the trading advice. Or, in other words, don’t think that the author is giving some kind of advice. The reason for keep saying this is simple. Some of the readers after reading would like to go long on ETH (or add to the positions), where others would thing – “time to go short (or close)”.

Then what advice is given here? Right, none at all. We are just studying the charts and the market sentiment.

Long-term chart for ETHBTC, very long-term:

ETHBTCVeryLongThe relationship between the waves 1,61 is the most “classic” one. So, we could expect the ETHBTC reach this point – 0.064.

The next most popular relationship is 2,61 and this might be the case in ETH vs. fiat. We take the ETHEUR for demonstration purposes:ETHEURVeryLongHere we can see that the climb up to around €55 is possible. In USD the same patter would lead us to around $60.

Let’s see the smaller time-frame, there we have pretty interesting picture:ETHEUR240minsWe had beautiful triangle (red lines). The beauty here is the fact that triangles are always the termination pattern. As it is written here: “triangles nearly always occur in positions prior to the final actionary wave in the pattern of one larger degree”.

It means one very important thing: the author is 95 % sure: we are finishing the ETH rise of one larger degree.

That’s why we are left with one the most important question: Is this 5-th wave over or not?

This is where the green “the most important line” comes into the game. The 5-th wave started there and as long as we stay above it, it can keep fighting its way up. Once this line is crossed, the structure is complete.

Here is the ETHBTC look at it:ETHBTC240minsThe key level to observe now – 0.039. Once broken, the chance for “the top in place” increases greatly. And we will definitely come back to analyzing the charts and especially the prevailing crowd sentiment at that moment.

To finish the update for today, one more chart, this time for DASH.DASHBTCWe didn’t discuss this asset here, instead there was a short twitt from our Santiment.net team, telling that it’s time to reverse. Pretty much exactly on the top.

The declining volume while price keeps trying to increase is very typical sign of the top. We have it in ETH now too. Is it possible that “this time is different” and ETH will behave differently? Finally, we have so many great fundamental news!

The author doubts that this time is different. If anything stay the same it is how the crowd behaves. Newcomers are mostly buying the tops. Just to experience what the crypto wild-west is. And we have huge amount of newcomers in ETH lately…

Stay tuned. The spring is coming!

The Elliott Wave Principle describes the behaviour of the financial markets. This Principle is build on the mass psychology swings from pessimism to optimism and back in a natural sequence. When these swings happen, the specific Elliott wave patterns in price movements are created and become visible. Each pattern has implications regarding the position of the market within its overall progression, past, present and future.
The purpose of our blog posts is to outline the progress of markets in terms of the Elliott Wave Principle.
While a course of conduct regarding investments can be formulated from such application of the Wave Principle, at no time will my posts make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended.
Very important. Investing carries risk of losses. You should be aware of all the risks associated with investing/trading financial instruments. Information provided in this blog is expressed in good faith, but it is not guaranteed.
The market service that never makes mistakes does not exist. Long-term success trading or investing in the markets demands recognition of the fact that error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities.
This blog and the information provided here should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions.
In no event will we be liable for any loss or damage on your account in connection with the use of our publications.

BTC split. To be or not to be?

We are in the situation where the whole crypto market is awaiting for one event only..

Will the Bitcoin network split or not? There is an amazing philosophical aspect to the current state of the things. Namely, the previously stated “decentralization” of the Bitcoin, where we had clear separation and balance between “developers”, “miners”, “users” and “business around the BTC” – will it survive? And if not – will it mean that the humans nature (greed, fear and delusion) is stronger than any technological solution designed to control it?

We will witness the resolution pretty soon. Next few weeks promise to be very intense.

Let us come back and check few charts. Together with crowd sentiment.

Last time we were looking for FOMO. We’ve got to some degree. That was the reason why we posted in our Santiment.net project the following twitt . As you can see, the market indeed reversed. However, ETH didn’t go as low as we wished ($20), reaching only $30. And this is difficult call for us now.. Should we wait till ETH will fall down to $20 or rather jump on board before it’s too late?

Let’s check the following chart:ETHBTCLongIt is hard to say where the wave 4 will end. Like on the picture above, or as here below:

ETHBTCMidTerm A bit easier part is – when we have our final run in the wave 5,  expect some real madness on the top. Most probably the sentiment will be something like “there is no other coin but ETH”.

Quite likely it will come together with the fall/split in BTC.

No one will be even considering to sell such a precious coin as ETH. But as a crowd sentiment follower/researcher you should have already learned. When everyone is super excited – it might be good time to consider other options.

Stay tuned. In the next weeks there will be again few regular updates. Not very often, but around once per week. The situation is special enough to do it again.

The Elliott Wave Principle describes the behaviour of the financial markets. This Principle is build on the mass psychology swings from pessimism to optimism and back in a natural sequence. When these swings happen, the specific Elliott wave patterns in price movements are created and become visible. Each pattern has implications regarding the position of the market within its overall progression, past, present and future.
The purpose of our blog posts is to outline the progress of markets in terms of the Elliott Wave Principle.
While a course of conduct regarding investments can be formulated from such application of the Wave Principle, at no time will my posts make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended.
Very important. Investing carries risk of losses. You should be aware of all the risks associated with investing/trading financial instruments. Information provided in this blog is expressed in good faith, but it is not guaranteed.
The market service that never makes mistakes does not exist. Long-term success trading or investing in the markets demands recognition of the fact that error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities.
This blog and the information provided here should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions.
In no event will we be liable for any loss or damage on your account in connection with the use of our publications.

FOMO, we need FOMO

The 5-th wave, which we were expecting to come in the last update, decided to extend. As the author mentioned in that last update, chasing the possible correction down wasn’t worth it. In the bull market (where we are clearly since the beginning of 2017) surprises tend to happen on the way up.

Looking at the charts now, it seems to be reasonable to get to the area around $22-23. Combined with the coming “news” about ENS (Ethereum Name Service) that could become the perfect top:ETHBTCMidTermThere are some alternative counts, where basically we have the sequence of 1-2, 1-2, 1-2-3 waves. If that is what is playing now, then we will have few more sequences “down-up” before making the top (which in this case can come a bit higher) and then correcting down to around $12-13.

How can we make a final call and decide which structure is the real one?

One way is to pay attention to what happens to the crowd sentiment when the ETH starts correcting down from the ATH (all time hight) at around $22-23. If on the way down the crowd will shown some concerns.. Well, then we would have to accept the chance for further rise. If, however, it will widely be seen as the “last chance” to buy cheap – you know we are on the top.

This is a nice exercise in the understanding of the “crowd” behavior and we are analyzing it in real time in the slack channel for the Santiment.net project. If you feel interested in learning this skill, come over and talk with us. We as the community were able to identify the last top and base for the rise in ETH.

As usual, the author generally wants to keep this blog free of any trading advices.  Whatever comes here is just sharing of the experience of how the crypto-currency markets can be analyzed in a special and so often seen way. Based not on FOMO and FUD, but on the observing the crowd sentiment and Elliott Waves.

Enjoy the spring.

The Elliott Wave Principle describes the behaviour of the financial markets. This Principle is build on the mass psychology swings from pessimism to optimism and back in a natural sequence. When these swings happen, the specific Elliott wave patterns in price movements are created and become visible. Each pattern has implications regarding the position of the market within its overall progression, past, present and future.
The purpose of our blog posts is to outline the progress of markets in terms of the Elliott Wave Principle.
While a course of conduct regarding investments can be formulated from such application of the Wave Principle, at no time will my posts make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended.
Very important. Investing carries risk of losses. You should be aware of all the risks associated with investing/trading financial instruments. Information provided in this blog is expressed in good faith, but it is not guaranteed.
The market service that never makes mistakes does not exist. Long-term success trading or investing in the markets demands recognition of the fact that error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities.
This blog and the information provided here should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions.
In no event will we be liable for any loss or damage on your account in connection with the use of our publications.

The 5-th wave in alt-coins is somewhere close

As expected in the last update the “alt-count” market has steadily grown since weeks.

This is what we have now:altcoinglobalThere should be one more correction down (small yellow arrow down). The most important part is, however, the possible bigger rise – the bigger yellow arrow.

The author isn’t going to chase this potential decline. The risk of missing the big rise is bigger than reward of selling high and then re-bying lower.

Regarding the BTC we are already in the “public awareness” phase. It means there are a lot of talks about BTC in the normal media. The risk for decline is very high. Will we make an ATH (all time high)? Possibly yes. If we see, however, the voices like “even the chinese regulations can’t harm the Bitcoin” that would make the call for the immediate reverse. Those who are trading the BTC now – try to understand what the majority expects. Market never follows the “majority path”. The author himself will come back to analyzing the BTC in 2 weeks.

As for ETH.. There is a good chance we’ve had our 5 waves up:ethusdlongSo, the correction down to $9 is probable.

If this correction starts now, it would also mark 5 wave rise in “alt-coins” in general. It means we might see few weeks of declining prices. However, as said above, the author is not going to chase this possible decline. The risk of missing out on a substantial rise is pretty high.

Besides, the author is out in the meditation retreat for the next 10 days, so no trading is possible anyway. And this is good so =)

Have good time and don’t get scared if you see something “unexpected” is happening.

The Elliott Wave Principle describes the behaviour of the financial markets. This Principle is build on the mass psychology swings from pessimism to optimism and back in a natural sequence. When these swings happen, the specific Elliott wave patterns in price movements are created and become visible. Each pattern has implications regarding the position of the market within its overall progression, past, present and future.
The purpose of our blog posts is to outline the progress of markets in terms of the Elliott Wave Principle.
While a course of conduct regarding investments can be formulated from such application of the Wave Principle, at no time will my posts make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended.
Very important. Investing carries risk of losses. You should be aware of all the risks associated with investing/trading financial instruments. Information provided in this blog is expressed in good faith, but it is not guaranteed.
The market service that never makes mistakes does not exist. Long-term success trading or investing in the markets demands recognition of the fact that error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities.
This blog and the information provided here should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions.
In no event will we be liable for any loss or damage on your account in connection with the use of our publications.

Waiting, waiting..

The author did it several times. Trading too much. The opposite also happens: trading too little and missing this or that opportunity.

What is better?

The author believes it is more the question of how often you can do in-depth analyses of the market. Trading without clear understanding (means based on pure emotions) is a bad idea. In crypto we have it constantly. Waves of FOMO (fear of missing out) are plenty and here we are, with loosing position. Pascal Coin marks the latest example of it.. But if you can spend daily few hours of analyzing the markets and collecting the needed sentiment information, then you can also trade daily (the author did it in the summer). Now too little time is left (most of the resources are spent for santiment.net platform) so the author tends to follow the bigger waves of the “crowd sentiment”.

The author generally hopes that with the santiment.net platform the amount of “actionable” crypto market intelligence (be it analyses like the one you read, however not from only one author but from many different, or shared ideas, or anything else) will grow rapidly and it will become possible to make better decisions in a shorter time.

Ok, back to the current market situation and how author sees it.

In general (this article goes a bit deeper on it) there should be pretty strong rise in crypto in the year 2017.

If we take the present moment, then we will see the following two pictures:global_market_cap_trendline-28-01This shows the trend line for the crypto market in general. It holds pretty nicely for over one year now. One could expect that at some time the price “jumps” off it and this is exactly where we might see strong increase in the whole crypto market valuation.

And here is the separate chart for the so-called alt coins only:alts_market_capitalizationsAttention: Trying to count the Elliott Waves in the altcoin market is pure experiment at the moment. The author plans to add the sentiment analyses to it as we get more data on this level in the future.

If our count is correct, expect the following to happen: spike above the shown above resistance line. It should come together with some clear wave of crowd excitement. Good news or articles in the established crypto media are expected. May be one of the projects (be it ETH, XMR, FCT or you name it) will might achieve one of the milestones.

Let’s wait and see.

As soon as this top in sentiment will become visible, expect on this pages the words of caution and “possibly time to close some longs”.

For the moment the author stays neutral, it means keeping his positions without adding to or selling part of it.

Have good time and Happy New Year if you are in China now! (the author is)

The Elliott Wave Principle describes the behaviour of the financial markets. This Principle is build on the mass psychology swings from pessimism to optimism and back in a natural sequence. When these swings happen, the specific Elliott wave patterns in price movements are created and become visible. Each pattern has implications regarding the position of the market within its overall progression, past, present and future.
The purpose of our blog posts is to outline the progress of markets in terms of the Elliott Wave Principle.
While a course of conduct regarding investments can be formulated from such application of the Wave Principle, at no time will my posts make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended.
Very important. Investing carries risk of losses. You should be aware of all the risks associated with investing/trading financial instruments. Information provided in this blog is expressed in good faith, but it is not guaranteed.
The market service that never makes mistakes does not exist. Long-term success trading or investing in the markets demands recognition of the fact that error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities.
This blog and the information provided here should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions.
In no event will we be liable for any loss or damage on your account in connection with the use of our publications.