Waiting, waiting..

The author did it several times. Trading too much. The opposite also happens: trading too little and missing this or that opportunity.

What is better?

The author believes it is more the question of how often you can do in-depth analyses of the market. Trading without clear understanding (means based on pure emotions) is a bad idea. In crypto we have it constantly. Waves of FOMO (fear of missing out) are plenty and here we are, with loosing position. Pascal Coin marks the latest example of it.. But if you can spend daily few hours of analyzing the markets and collecting the needed sentiment information, then you can also trade daily (the author did it in the summer). Now too little time is left (most of the resources are spent for santiment.net platform) so the author tends to follow the bigger waves of the “crowd sentiment”.

The author generally hopes that with the santiment.net platform the amount of “actionable” crypto market intelligence (be it analyses like the one you read, however not from only one author but from many different, or shared ideas, or anything else) will grow rapidly and it will become possible to make better decisions in a shorter time.

Ok, back to the current market situation and how author sees it.

In general (this article goes a bit deeper on it) there should be pretty strong rise in crypto in the year 2017.

If we take the present moment, then we will see the following two pictures:global_market_cap_trendline-28-01This shows the trend line for the crypto market in general. It holds pretty nicely for over one year now. One could expect that at some time the price “jumps” off it and this is exactly where we might see strong increase in the whole crypto market valuation.

And here is the separate chart for the so-called alt coins only:alts_market_capitalizationsAttention: Trying to count the Elliott Waves in the altcoin market is pure experiment at the moment. The author plans to add the sentiment analyses to it as we get more data on this level in the future.

If our count is correct, expect the following to happen: spike above the shown above resistance line. It should come together with some clear wave of crowd excitement. Good news or articles in the established crypto media are expected. May be one of the projects (be it ETH, XMR, FCT or you name it) will might achieve one of the milestones.

Let’s wait and see.

As soon as this top in sentiment will become visible, expect on this pages the words of caution and “possibly time to close some longs”.

For the moment the author stays neutral, it means keeping his positions without adding to or selling part of it.

Have good time and Happy New Year if you are in China now! (the author is)

The Elliott Wave Principle describes the behaviour of the financial markets. This Principle is build on the mass psychology swings from pessimism to optimism and back in a natural sequence. When these swings happen, the specific Elliott wave patterns in price movements are created and become visible. Each pattern has implications regarding the position of the market within its overall progression, past, present and future.
The purpose of our blog posts is to outline the progress of markets in terms of the Elliott Wave Principle.
While a course of conduct regarding investments can be formulated from such application of the Wave Principle, at no time will my posts make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended.
Very important. Investing carries risk of losses. You should be aware of all the risks associated with investing/trading financial instruments. Information provided in this blog is expressed in good faith, but it is not guaranteed.
The market service that never makes mistakes does not exist. Long-term success trading or investing in the markets demands recognition of the fact that error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities.
This blog and the information provided here should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions.
In no event will we be liable for any loss or damage on your account in connection with the use of our publications.
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ETH and BTC goals are reached. What’s next?

As we discussed in the last article, the expected goal for ETH around 11 EUR was reached pretty easily. But today we won’t talk much about ETH. Next update will be solely for ETH.

Rather we come back directly to BTC..

As we mentioned in the same last post, the crowd was getting too positive and very few believed we could drop below  $800. We expected this however and warned the readers…

The author is trying its best to “keep the balance”. It means not to get too much excited when everyone is. But also not be too much scared when the crowd starts panicking.

At the moment seems like everyone is scared regarding the BTC and its sudden “made in China” problems.

This is the time where we believe we need to write few lines again.

Look at this chart first:global_market_cap_trendlineWhat we have now is most probably a correction.. And this correction should be over soon. Might even happen today or tomorrow. But as long as this trend line isn’t clearly broken, nothing really bad happened to the crypto..

Let us also dive a bit deeper into the BTC charts. Who knows may be we will see some patterns? We like Elliott Waves patterns!

btcusdlong

The author leaves a bit more than usual notation on the chart. Otherwise it is difficult to show how many aspects one needs to take into account while analyzing the markets according to Elliott Waves..

The bottom line: we have opposite situation to the one  when the talked the last time. The BTC is much closer to the bottom now than to the top. Everything is changing..

Have a nice day.

The Elliott Wave Principle describes the behaviour of the financial markets. This Principle is build on the mass psychology swings from pessimism to optimism and back in a natural sequence. When these swings happen, the specific Elliott wave patterns in price movements are created and become visible. Each pattern has implications regarding the position of the market within its overall progression, past, present and future.
The purpose of our blog posts is to outline the progress of markets in terms of the Elliott Wave Principle.
While a course of conduct regarding investments can be formulated from such application of the Wave Principle, at no time will my posts make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended.
Very important. Investing carries risk of losses. You should be aware of all the risks associated with investing/trading financial instruments. Information provided in this blog is expressed in good faith, but it is not guaranteed.
The market service that never makes mistakes does not exist. Long-term success trading or investing in the markets demands recognition of the fact that error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities.
This blog and the information provided here should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions.
In no event will we be liable for any loss or damage on your account in connection with the use of our publications.

The year started pretty active

What a start into the New Year!

BTC crossed $1000 without any hesitation. With this we have the official break out in the crypto:Global_Market_Cap_2017_01.png

Though we expected the intermediate top to be built below $1000, well, the market has different opinion on it..

To understand better our “sentiment” approach to the crypto markets let us check what we said back in Mai 2016 about Bitcoin:

“…The sentiment is amazingly pessimistic at the moment. For instance, is anyone who is reading this blog, consider buying BTC? No? Why? Too many bad news for poor bitcoin?”

Negative sentiment was one of the reason for the author to keep doing bullish calls on BTC throughout the year (except the correction part in July, which we also got correctly).

Now we are about to reach the opposite extreme. To illustrate it..How many of you consider the possibility  for BTC to drop to $800? And to $500? Well, we believe there are still some, but definitely much less than just few weeks ago. At the moment when no one believes anymore that we will ever see $800, this is exactly what will happen, drop down to around this level. The level itself is based on Elliott Waves patterns, but the price and time when this drop will start will be determined by the crowd sentiment.

We will publish the BTC chart in one of the next updates, now let us come back to ETH.

As expected in our last letter, ETHBTC did make the new low, though it was not as deep as we thought. “Only” 0.0073 ETHBTC was reached. 0.006 would be better from the pattern point of view, but we can’t demand from the market too much.. For the moment we leave the possibility for ETHBTC to stay depressed and may be to make one more low.

For ETH in Fiat (USD or EUR) however, the picture is quite different:etheurmidtermAfter decisively breaking the trend-line, we very likely have finally the trend change. There is a chance for ETH to come down and do the last “kiss the trend-line and go”. The next goal, however, is around 11 in EUR and 13 in USD.

have a nice start into the year too !

The Elliott Wave Principle describes the behaviour of the financial markets. This Principle is build on the mass psychology swings from pessimism to optimism and back in a natural sequence. When these swings happen, the specific Elliott wave patterns in price movements are created and become visible. Each pattern has implications regarding the position of the market within its overall progression, past, present and future.
The purpose of our blog posts is to outline the progress of markets in terms of the Elliott Wave Principle.
While a course of conduct regarding investments can be formulated from such application of the Wave Principle, at no time will my posts make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended.
Very important. Investing carries risk of losses. You should be aware of all the risks associated with investing/trading financial instruments. Information provided in this blog is expressed in good faith, but it is not guaranteed.
The market service that never makes mistakes does not exist. Long-term success trading or investing in the markets demands recognition of the fact that error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities.
This blog and the information provided here should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions.
In no event will we be liable for any loss or damage on your account in connection with the use of our publications.