How is our ETH?

Though the author expected small rise to 0.016 before the new drop, it worked a bit differently. We went directly to the new low.

But the ETH is Ok.

Let us see some charts. Today it’s better to start with BTCCNY  (the main trading volume is there, not in BTCUSD).btccnymidterm The pattern is quite clear. We should build two more tops (with one decline in between) and the advance in BTC is done for quite some time (few months at least). There is also a chance that we need only one new top (this alternate count isn’t shown above).

What price level might we reach during this process? This is the question no one can answer now. Only when the crowd will get unreasonable (yet again), will we say “we have the top again”.

And as the crowd gets more and more unreasonable at the moment, combined with almost mirrored chart, gives us the feeling that the ETH is Ok (even though we need a bit more pressure):ethbtcmidtermHere too, one more sequance (recovery + new bottom) and we are done with that nasty and long decline.

So, a bit more patience is what one needs now..

As the last link, here is the adoption rate of SegWit – https://bitcoincore.org/en/segwit_adoption/

Makes sense to observe it. In case it is accepted by the Bitcoin community, there will be a lot of talk about “BTC soft-fork is much better than ETH hard-fork”. Also the perfect news for BTC top and ETH bottom.

Have a nice day and don’t trade too much =)

The Elliott Wave Principle describes the behaviour of the financial markets. This Principle is build on the mass psychology swings from pessimism to optimism and back in a natural sequence. When these swings happen, the specific Elliott wave patterns in price movements are created and become visible. Each pattern has implications regarding the position of the market within its overall progression, past, present and future.
The purpose of our blog posts is to outline the progress of markets in terms of the Elliott Wave Principle.
While a course of conduct regarding investments can be formulated from such application of the Wave Principle, at no time will my posts make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended.
Very important. Investing carries risk of losses. You should be aware of all the risks associated with investing/trading financial instruments. Information provided in this blog is expressed in good faith, but it is not guaranteed.
The market service that never makes mistakes does not exist. Long-term success trading or investing in the markets demands recognition of the fact that error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities.
This blog and the information provided here should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions.
In no event will we be liable for any loss or damage on your account in connection with the use of our publications.
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Time to look more closely at XMR

If you are here for quite some time already, you remember how we predicted the decline of XMR from the last top. Then we left Monero to go through the correction. The long-term picture, however, was quite bullish and we even tried to catch the bottom once (failed attempt).

Now it is time to look into the XMR again..

And this is why:xmrbtcPure Elliott Waves. We had 5 ways up on a way to the last all time high (ATH). And (as the author believes) we had recently 5 waves up on smaller scale too.

Let’s see the smaller scale in details:xmrbtcmidterm5 waves up, nice correction down. Please notice, the correction ended at exactly 0.618 of the 5 waves up. The only small problem – the rise thereafter isn’t that clear. It could be part of the extended move up or it can still be part of the correction to these 5 waves.

The author personally would like to see one more drop to little bit below 0.008. Will see if it happens.

But, generally, based on the long-term picture, XMR looks bullish.

ETH is also Ok, but we will come to it in the next update.

The Elliott Wave Principle describes the behaviour of the financial markets. This Principle is build on the mass psychology swings from pessimism to optimism and back in a natural sequence. When these swings happen, the specific Elliott wave patterns in price movements are created and become visible. Each pattern has implications regarding the position of the market within its overall progression, past, present and future.
The purpose of our blog posts is to outline the progress of markets in terms of the Elliott Wave Principle.
While a course of conduct regarding investments can be formulated from such application of the Wave Principle, at no time will my posts make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended.
Very important. Investing carries risk of losses. You should be aware of all the risks associated with investing/trading financial instruments. Information provided in this blog is expressed in good faith, but it is not guaranteed.
The market service that never makes mistakes does not exist. Long-term success trading or investing in the markets demands recognition of the fact that error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities.
This blog and the information provided here should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions.
In no event will we be liable for any loss or damage on your account in connection with the use of our publications.

Get ready, it’s coming

In case you are asking: what is coming ?

First, the madness in BTC price. Whatever happens to SegWit. Be it accepted or rejected. We will witness soon the local top for BTC.

Will it go up to $1000? The author thinks it is possible. How probable? Not really. The sentiment got so dense on BTC that it is difficult to imagine it will grow far behind the $800. May be $850. May be not. We will see.

The battle for $800, however, we wanna see it!

Second (what is coming) is ETH bottom. Today one long-term chart. It explains why the author mentioned recently “time to turn slowly bullish”. Look at it:ethbtclongtermToday purely for educational purposes the author doesn’t put the waves numbers. Instead, read the chart, one hint is provided. Do you see the exact 1.618 extension ? This is how the waves 3 and 1 are ideally correlate. What comes next? You should already know by now after half a year of educational efforts on these pages. In case you are the new reader or want to talk in details, let’s move to the comment area..

What sentiment should we experience? Depression, capitulation, close to “lose an interest”, sometimes panic. The author took again some time to read, analyze and structure the sentiment information, available on the internet. And the results? We are very close to the classic environment, accompanying the bottom of the wave 5. Don’t remember when I saw last time so much negative sentiment on ETH.. It doesn’t feel yet as the final bottom, but pretty close to it.

And, by the way, once again the author got a confirmation how useful it will be to have a central point, platform where one can always get all the needed sentiment information, already structured and tailored to the needs of the trader/investor. It took 3 days and 2-3 hours daily to get the current sentiment environment. A lot of effort is needed indeed.

We believe with our coming santiment.net platform we feed this empty space in the crypto universe.

For now, watch out for the price action. The last moves in crypto (be it top or bottom) can get crazy at times..

The Elliott Wave Principle describes the behaviour of the financial markets. This Principle is build on the mass psychology swings from pessimism to optimism and back in a natural sequence. When these swings happen, the specific Elliott wave patterns in price movements are created and become visible. Each pattern has implications regarding the position of the market within its overall progression, past, present and future.
The purpose of our blog posts is to outline the progress of markets in terms of the Elliott Wave Principle.
While a course of conduct regarding investments can be formulated from such application of the Wave Principle, at no time will my posts make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended.
Very important. Investing carries risk of losses. You should be aware of all the risks associated with investing/trading financial instruments. Information provided in this blog is expressed in good faith, but it is not guaranteed.
The market service that never makes mistakes does not exist. Long-term success trading or investing in the markets demands recognition of the fact that error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities.
This blog and the information provided here should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions.
In no event will we be liable for any loss or damage on your account in connection with the use of our publications.

Short sentiment update

There is no (yet) big changes in our view on ETH. The new low is expected, the sentiment should get depressed more than now. Yet, as we said in the last update, the author is getting finally slightly bullish on ETH (after quite a long pause!)

BTC is ranging around as drunk sailor, makes little sense to predict every single move. We want to see the battle for $800 and we paid for our tickets!

What is new and interesting is AMP (Synereo). The newly sold during the last crowdsale AMP tokens (20 mln.) are about to hit the market. The general sentiment is that it will push  the price much lower. And you know what we feel when we see any kind of general sentiment. We expect the change. In this case the turn up. AMP is, unfortunately, not the market which we followed on these pages very closely. Author will try to get deeper into the price structure and pattern. If succeeded, expect some charts on these pages.

As usual, don’t consider the written here as trading advice. It is not. Whatever is shared is for educational purposes only. And, well, the author likes writing in his free time too =)

Anyway, today is the last day of the two months Asia trip. Soon will welcome aging Europe again. Coming winter and snow are easier to accept when the crypto space is heating up.

And the crypto is heating up.

ETH sentiment is reaching an extrem

As expected, the ETH continued its decline. The magic of Elliott Waves analyses worked again. The author didn’t see any bullish pattern, so it was logical to expect the decline.

Today let’s use the magic of sentiment, combined with Elliott Waves. First, the chart:ethbtcmidtermWhat could we expect after the thrust out of the triangle happens?

Two things:ethbtcmidtermpredictionFirst, swift drop to around the level of 0.01140 and then possible recovery to around 0.015. This kind of behaviour is typical (80% of the cases). The price level 0.01140 we took from the bigger time-frame, that would make the Elliott Waves pattern looks good.

And second.. Sentiment.. It should become pretty depressed when ETH will be crossing 0.014, then 0.013 and further down. Is it bad? Actually, not.

Depressed and panicked sentiment is exactly what we’ve been expecting and waiting for on these pages for quite some time.

This crowd emotions must be present in order to allow the sustainable rise.

So, even though our update today isn’t that much optimistic for ETH, actually it is first time after the long pause when the author gets some positive expectations for ETH.

By the way, our predictions for BTC.. Short-term we expected the correction down to continue (the level around $650 seemed to be reasonable). Looks pretty likely we were wrong on it.

But long-term we were bullish on BTC for more than one month and waiting for the battle for $800 to finally start!

Stay cool in this hot-tempered and highly volatile market time…And good luck!

The Elliott Wave Principle describes the behaviour of the financial markets. This Principle is build on the mass psychology swings from pessimism to optimism and back in a natural sequence. When these swings happen, the specific Elliott wave patterns in price movements are created and become visible. Each pattern has implications regarding the position of the market within its overall progression, past, present and future.
The purpose of our blog posts is to outline the progress of markets in terms of the Elliott Wave Principle.
While a course of conduct regarding investments can be formulated from such application of the Wave Principle, at no time will my posts make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended.
Very important. Investing carries risk of losses. You should be aware of all the risks associated with investing/trading financial instruments. Information provided in this blog is expressed in good faith, but it is not guaranteed.
The market service that never makes mistakes does not exist. Long-term success trading or investing in the markets demands recognition of the fact that error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities.
This blog and the information provided here should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions.
In no event will we be liable for any loss or damage on your account in connection with the use of our publications.

Short update on BTC

The author is afraid we will have soon to rename this blog.

There is not so much interesting activity in ETH lately.

Instead, we have plenty of exciting moves in BTC, then also ZCash lately (may be we will come to it in the next update). Not to say about REP and XMR in between.

Well, the only stable part of the life is the changes we experience. So, we need to accept this new reality. Hopefully, one day we turn back again mostly to our beloved ETH..

As for now, we are in the middle of the mentioned battle for $800 in BTC.

BTCCNY.pngIt is better to check the BTCCNY chart, as the majority of the action comes from the China.

What do we see? Clear 5 waves down. They have to be continued, one new low is very probable. Is it the end of the battle or is it just a short pause before the next assault attempt?

We will know the answer when the sentiment after the new low will become visible.

A bit panic and worries would mean the BTC will rise again.

“Just a correction” and “use a chance to buy cheap BTC before it’s too late” and we would wait for more decline.

Stay tuned. Though being quite busy lately with building up the “sentiment in crypto markets”, we do not forget our subscribers here. We will keep you updated.

The Elliott Wave Principle describes the behaviour of the financial markets. This Principle is build on the mass psychology swings from pessimism to optimism and back in a natural sequence. When these swings happen, the specific Elliott wave patterns in price movements are created and become visible. Each pattern has implications regarding the position of the market within its overall progression, past, present and future.
The purpose of our blog posts is to outline the progress of markets in terms of the Elliott Wave Principle.
While a course of conduct regarding investments can be formulated from such application of the Wave Principle, at no time will my posts make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended.
Very important. Investing carries risk of losses. You should be aware of all the risks associated with investing/trading financial instruments. Information provided in this blog is expressed in good faith, but it is not guaranteed.
The market service that never makes mistakes does not exist. Long-term success trading or investing in the markets demands recognition of the fact that error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities.
This blog and the information provided here should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions.
In no event will we be liable for any loss or damage on your account in connection with the use of our publications.

Let the battle for $800 begin!

Still dominated by the price of BTC, we need to continue where we stopped some 10 days ago.

Smartly recovered from one of the mentioned levels (double zig-zag finished indeed at around $624) we saw a nice rise to around $740. The battle for $800 seems to be inevitable now. What will happen next, depends a lot on sentiment, which will manifest itself at around this level. Not so much on the price action.

Once again, what we will see as a crowd sentiment when the BTC price will be close to $800 is a key to understand the next steps.

Just to give an example. If we break $800, but there will still be worries and doubts that BTC can ever rich the $1000, quite likely we will see $1000 soon. If BTC starts dropping down from around $800 and the crowd will be telling “just a correction, no problem, we will soon see the ATH (all time high)” – expect the decline to continue.

We will soon be there and will publish an update with the sentiment observation.

ETH, as expected, felt down. Though we didn’t expect it to go so much down, basically it filled the void of “negative sentiment”. Now the crowd is at least somehow concerned. The short-term charts, however, are still pointing to the down:ethbtcshorttermThere are no visible 5 ways up. We should expect the new drop below the last low. The sentiment in this case should become closer to what we expect to be a starting point for a sustainable rise.

Our XMR setup from the last update (at the end of the article) didn’t work out. Decline continued. However, taking into account that we experience pretty massive pump/hype with ZCash right now (which should be soon named as a complete replacement for XMR)  and the sentiment for XMR might become very depressed, the preference for the long side there stay. The author is patiently waiting for the next visible 5 waves up.

We also have quite exciting news coming on our santiment.net platform. Stay tuned.

The Elliott Wave Principle describes the behaviour of the financial markets. This Principle is build on the mass psychology swings from pessimism to optimism and back in a natural sequence. When these swings happen, the specific Elliott wave patterns in price movements are created and become visible. Each pattern has implications regarding the position of the market within its overall progression, past, present and future.
The purpose of our blog posts is to outline the progress of markets in terms of the Elliott Wave Principle.
While a course of conduct regarding investments can be formulated from such application of the Wave Principle, at no time will my posts make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended.
Very important. Investing carries risk of losses. You should be aware of all the risks associated with investing/trading financial instruments. Information provided in this blog is expressed in good faith, but it is not guaranteed.
The market service that never makes mistakes does not exist. Long-term success trading or investing in the markets demands recognition of the fact that error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities.
This blog and the information provided here should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions.
In no event will we be liable for any loss or damage on your account in connection with the use of our publications.