Update before 10 days pause

Let us analyze today according to the capitalization.

BTC. Our previous expectations were mostly focused on the upside. We had good reason for that based on Elliott Waves count and also on sentiment (which was long time pretty negative). The sentiment has though increased after the last rise but is still ok. The Elliott Waves pattern, however, has now few different options:btcusdmidtermIt is easy to recognize the series of 5 waves down (from 17-th of October at $644). We should give some time to the market to reveal the current pattern. At the moment it can become anything: fully developed 5 waves move down, double zigzag (if we stop at around $624) or something else which isn’t yet visible.

It is pity that the author won’t be able to follow any markets for the next 10 days. The current structure looks indeed very interesting.

ETH. The dump stoped and even reversed. (Not at the level where we expected it to happen).However, the structure of the rise doesn’t look bullish at the moment:ethbtcmidtermThis last small rise looks more like double correction. Or, as in a chart above – double zigzag + triangle + (normal for the case after the triangle) strong rise. If this last pattern indeed what is under development, then we should expect one more rise to around 0.02050 and then the new series of drops.

We still think to visit the area around 0.016 for ETHBTC could make wonder with sentiment. Drop, combined with two successful forks will clearly bring sentiment down enough. That might finally allow the long-term rise.

XMR. Monero finally is doing well according to Elliott Waves structure. Or at least the way how author sees it:xmrbtcshortterm

There normally should be pretty deep correction after this attempt “to raise from the dead”. At the level slightly below 0.01 (61,8 % retracement) Risk/Reward for long position seems to reasonable.

REP. The last two attempts to rise look not bad. This is however the lack of long-term market data which makes the analyses at this stage pretty hard. However, taking into account that the talks about REP are much less now, the sentiment is pretty far from “excitement” which is good.

So, that’s it for today, crypto samurais! And after 10 days the author will come back.

Edit: Had to update the formatting for the text below. Somehow it gets destroyed from time to time on the wordpress.com

The Elliott Wave Principle describes the behaviour of the financial markets. This Principle is build on the mass psychology swings from pessimism to optimism and back in a natural sequence. When these swings happen, the specific Elliott wave patterns in price movements are created and become visible. Each pattern has implications regarding the position of the market within its overall progression, past, present and future.
The purpose of our blog posts is to outline the progress of markets in terms of the Elliott Wave Principle.
While a course of conduct regarding investments can be formulated from such application of the Wave Principle, at no time will my posts make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended.
Very important. Investing carries risk of losses. You should be aware of all the risks associated with investing/trading financial instruments. Information provided in this blog is expressed in good faith, but it is not guaranteed.
The market service that never makes mistakes does not exist. Long-term success trading or investing in the markets demands recognition of the fact that error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities.
This blog and the information provided here should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions.
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Author: Ravno_108

Sentiment wave rider. Product creator. Yogi

8 thoughts on “Update before 10 days pause”

  1. Alts have not been the place to be for the last 10 days or so. I’m well underwater on recent purchases of DASH, ETC, MAID, FCT and LTC (WTF was I thinking adding to that one on the way down?). I got stink bids filled this evening on ETH and XRP. I still have lower bids on XMR and XCP, but I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see them get filled in the next 24 hours. Proper bloodbath!

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    1. Looks like to hold BTC wasn’t bad ideal at all during the last 10 days =)

      For the other coins I have a feeling we might experience some more decline before they start rising.

      May be after BTC will poke above $800. I would assume that everyone will believe that now it’s finally “the king time” (means BTC). And as usual when the sentiment becomes extremes, the change happens.

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      1. Welcome back 🙂

        You could be right, but yesterday felt quite extreme, with lots of trollbox comments to the effect of “BTC/ZEC has killed ETH/XMR/…… (insert altcoin of your choice)”

        I recall seeing 1 comment in particular when XMR was down big, saying “XMR will never see 0.01 again”, which seemed to get some agreement. Gave me some confidence that we may have seen the bottom in XMR yesterday.

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        1. Oh. That is indeed good news for sentiment trader. Then let’s observe the next few days. If it keeps rising a a bit and sentiment stays pretty depressed, then i might change my opinion to more immediate bullish one

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          1. The tricky part about trading on trollbox sentiment is avoiding confirmation bias. We all have a tendency to focus only on the comments that support our idea, and filter out the rest. How to evaluate sentiment in a scientific (algorithmic?) way that avoids this problem?

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  2. Exactly ! Right on the spot. We do make mistakes because our decisions are driven by the deep-rooted emotions. And emotions are to protect your “internal psychic world”, not really to make you rich =) There is nothing to prevent these emotions to influence us when we analyze the sentiment data too.

    You will see how we are going to approach it on the santiment.net platform.

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