Ni Hau

First day in Shanghai, as you understand =)

Generally, we are preparing the next slightly updated version of http://santiment.net, based on what we learned in this iteration. The response till now is positive and strong. The author has now full hands of things to do. Luckily there are already few people who are actively helping. The next iteration is planned for the middle-end of the next week.

Today and tomorrow we can talk charts again. First ETH and then tomorrow XMR.

Basically, they both are at the decisive point, XMR seems to be finishing its correction where ETH is trying to jump up.

ethbtclongThe author present a slightly bearish view today. Having enough positive news, let us be critical and contrarian.

Basically, the bullish case for ETH demands the break up of the slightly falling down trend line. As long as it hasn’t happen, there is chance of another drop.

This is also because there is a visible 5 waves structure down:ethbtcmidtermUnless the red line is broken, there is a good chance to go down one more time.

Let us wait one more night (Chinese time) and see. If needed, we will update the ETH situation tomorrow and for sure will also talk about XMR. There seem to be the next good opportunity to buy in the progress.

Enjoy your day.

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Author: Ravno_108

Sentiment wave rider. Product creator. Yogi

28 thoughts on “Ni Hau”

  1. Thanks for the update. Looking forward to your analysis on XMR and further updates on ETH.

    I am curious to know if you take the price of BTC into consideration within your analysis for ETH/BTC and XMR/BTC pairings. Sudden jolts or a potential rotation out of Alts into BTC (which is expected sometime in the mid-term) will substantially impact the price, unless ETH or XMR move in conjunction with BTC.

    An understanding of BTC as a balancing metric would be very helpful. I’m sure you do this already but if you could post on it – that would really help us out. Again, still waiting for this move – if it works out, I’ll ship couple BTC over to you brotha!

    I kind of got wrecked on XRP – what was I thinking? I got impatient with ETH and made an ill advised move, so I need to recover – full margin long in ETH at the moment… and will eventually halve the position for XMR long, but always uneasy about sudden BTC movement upward.

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    1. Yes, I always consider BTC. I do post from time on BTC price but you seem to be write, may be I should include this more often. It does have strong influence.

      What happened with XRP? Followed the hype news and bought into it?

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      1. Yeah got caught up in the hype because I’ve always felt that XRP is a multiple bagger…. until I recently learned about it. I went about 75k USD into it because of pure emotion – I released after a 9K USD loss and re-rotated back into ETH after getting myself sorted.

        After holding ETH for over a month the lending fees killed me and I opted to swing trade. After all the positive swing trades recently – I thought XRP would hold beyond an hour but it just crumbled and I lost over 20 BTC. No Worries – I can absorb that shock – but if I recover because of your ETH and XMR input – I’ll definitely send over several (over 3 btc) your way!

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        1. Yeah, I see… But it is also good that you were able to push yourself and close the loosing position.
          Not everyone can do it, that’s why margin call is a typical result in a over-leveraged crypto speculating.

          If I may give an advice, never trade on positive news. Or if you do, close it pretty fast as long as sentiment is still high.
          Great news are highest point of positive sentiment and are (almost) always followed by a relatively fast turn down.

          It can happen (10 % of the time) that good news are followed by even better ones.
          But 90 % of the time it will crash down. And crypto is very volatile, so it happens fast and furious.

          So, considering that it is 10/90 Risk/Reward game, I personally always stay away from it.
          And if I already have one long running, I start looking for an exit point.

          We will cover all these in the sentiment.net in much greater details.

          As for now I do hope that the coming XMR turn up will play good for you.

          Not because of 3 btc (even though I will surely be happy about it), but because if you make a good trade,
          you will get a confirmation of how is it when the things are done right. So the next time it will be
          a bit easier to resist the temptation to follow the crypto crowd.

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  2. Thanks for the heads-up on ETH! I noticed XMR entered the correction area, but the volume on the reversal has been low (couldn’t break 0.016 so far). The people in reddit xmrtrader seem cautious (‘bull trap’ — no moon talk but also no blood in the streets). But let’s see! Will you be posting a few pictures of Devcon for those who stay at home? 🙂 Have fun!

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    1. Ah, cool. You see, I have no time to follow all information sources anymore. If they really talk about bull trap, time to consider long. Could you send me some links to their conversations? You know already my private email. I will check it out. In case it is indeed feel like good entry point, will make a nice post on it.

      The pictures, yes, will publish few of them.

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        1. Ok, I read it through and even subscribed to this subreddit.
          From what I’ve read, it doesn’t look yet like a capitulation. Will keep observing them, may be a drop to around 0.012 is needed to generate depressed feeling.

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          1. Yes, exactly what I was thinking. Even testing of 0.01 would be healthy (have the extremes both ways). The xmrtading subreddit is rather inactive though compared with ethtrader (another reason to have a good community!)

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  3. It’s probably hard to know, but if the price of ether in the eth/btc pair drops due to a rise in the fiat value of btc (in the way you say it might), then will the fiat value of ether be affected less? Looking at a past example of when bitcoin rose dramatically: on the 28th of May you see bitcoin’s fiat value rose and rallied for a good few days, and ether’s fiat value also rose, but on the eth/btc pair the ether price stayed suppressed relative to the fiat price.

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    1. It is hard to say general things about the sign of the fiat correlation between BTC and ETH. For example, ETH can be ‘insurance’ against BTC problems (ETH FOMO, negative correlation). The BTC bitfinex hack dragged down both (positive correlation), and the DAO hack dragged down ETH but not BTC (no correlation). Take your pick 🙂

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  4. What a night… Have been following the new ethereum challenge as it was happening. I thought that the price would fall even more. I’m surprised it didn’t.
    Do you know anything about DOGE appearing on DEVCON2 homepage? I’m very curious what it means. I suspect it could be 2-way peg Vitalik was writing about in January. I bought some DOGE just in case it shoots up. I remember ethereum developers already gave other hint before and I regret I didn’t took that seriously.

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  5. Any update on XMR? It’s been perky the last day or so. Getting an itchy trigger finger on closing out the last small portion of my short position.

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    1. Sorry for a silence, too much activity here at the DevCon2. Concerning the XMR – I didn’t see the capitulation yet and too much worries. Give me some time, I will check the charts in the evening. Will do an update this evening.

      ETH, by the way, by all means broke all resistance lines.

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          1. Poloniex.com troll box full of XMR moonlit saying stuff like “0.02 in an hour”, and back to 0.265 by the weekend” made me add slightly to my short @ 0.019.

            That, and the fact that 0.019 happened to be 38.2% fib retrace of the entire move down off the high.

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            1. Internet here at the DevCon is really a sloth style, so I can’t check the charts. But form what I remember yesterday the correction down was clearly needed.

              Also great found with Polo troll box, I also used it several times, quite a precise tool.

              If you want, you can join our “santiment” slack channel. We could start discussing these topics there.
              Send me a short email at balance (@) maksimbala.com and I will send you an invitation.

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  6. i expanded all the comments in today’s ethtrader subreddit and did a page search of “moon”. At time of posting this comment there are 5 instances (but one of them is “maybe moon” and another is “mooning”)

    I did the same for yesterday’s daily discussion and there are also 5 instances (although one was “moon?” and another was “moonkids”).

    So 5 for all of yesterday, and 5 so far today. I do not know what is the usual amount, so i can’t comment on the significance of the number

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    1. I should have said that the searchs were just on the Daily Discussion threads. Not any other part of the subreddit.

      And I have now checked same for “mars”. There is no mars in yesterday’s Dail Discussion and none so far today 🙂

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    1. Haha, don’t even know, your comment is a sign of a heating up sentiment already ?

      Anyway, Alex, you are quite active poster here.
      If you want, you can join our santiment.net slack community.
      Just send me a short email at balance (@) maksimbala.com

      Like

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