Today no charts, just text update before going to sleep.
The author spent quite some time the last few days, trying to investigate the ETH sentiment. After posting and talking in reddit, here is the outcome.
There are basically two tendencies.
One group of traders sees no chance that ETH can go significantly lower. There is a consensus, that the bottom is build and no way we will ever see even 0.017. Fortunately, this is not the only sentiment, otherwise the author would be tempted to sell the major part of his ETH holdings. This kind of one-sided expectation is very dangerous. If even it is based on strong fundamentals.
But as we said, fortunately, there is another pretty big part of traders, who are very cautious and don’t expect any big rise. 13 $, maximum 14 $. Some of them are out of ETH at all, as it is much more interesting to invest into other crypto assets.
Based on these observations and taking into account that the main purpose of any market action is to surprise and go to the least expected (by the crowd) direction, we have only two possible actions in the next week(s).
Option 1. We keep rising way above 14$, may be up to 20$. In this case the second group of traders will be surprised and they will get punished for being out of ETH.
Option 2. We will drop one more time, possibly way below 0.017 (it will come then combined with BTC rise) and the first group of traders will get punished. Then, after the sentiment will get very dark (DevCon2 is here, but ETH price isn’t rising at all) the soil will be ready for strong advance.
That’s a difficult call we need to do now. But one thing is clear. It won’t be so quiet anymore. The sentiment is ripe for volatile moves.
We will visit the charts in the next update, let’s see what they will tell us.
It would also be nice to read your thoughts on the current sentiment. What is your opinion on the market? Can we go much higher? Is it possible to drop much lower?
Stay safe and may be see some of you in Shanghai during the DevCon2.