Some of our predictions are working better, some aren’t so good.
For the secondary markets (secondary for us, ETH lovers) everything looks fine, just in line of what we expect to happen.
Monero (XMR) working its way to finish the correction. We are planning an update soon on XMRBTC. ETC is also keep moving to the direction of the full capitulation. Where BTC, in its turn, is aiming to visit 670-700 USD (can also be higher). You can read here our initial expectations on ETC and BTC from few weeks ago.
So. Vincent.. are we happy?
Not really. The ETHBTC behavior lately is a bit troublesome. It’s not even about the charts. They quite neutral and, as we mentioned on these pages, can even be considered pretty bullish. This is the sentiment, which makes the author to feel lately a bit uncomfortable. With every rise (be it even small one), the optimism is immediately rising and it’s easy to notice the high level of “we are going to rise much higher now”. Actually, even now, when the ETH price isn’t moving much at all, the general sentiment is “it can’t go lower than 0.017” (or 11 USD). Ironically, the stronger the crowd believes it can’t go lower, the more worries author gets.
It would be much better if we had many concerns and some portion of fear.
But we will see how things will develop. With sentiment it’s a pretty sensible and special thing. The author keeps observing it.
By the way, the next week. The readers of this blog will be the first ones to witness the start of the new project. Aimed exactly to the solve one of the biggest and most resource consuming part of investment/traders activity – gathering the crowd sentiment.
For today, however, let’s focus on an interesting chart. The author believes we have 5 waves up on ETHBTC:
Though this is a rather short-term view, it worths to pay attention. The shape of Elliott Waves is pretty nicely formed, also RSI is falling a bit when we finish the 5-th way.
And here comes the tricky point with sentiment. As said in the beginning, right now it doesn’t look bullish from sentiment point of view. Too much optimism. If, however, during the next rise we will notice some concerns and disbelieves. Let’s say the traders will be telling something like “well, this is again just a small rise, not possible to sustain”, we might turn bullish.
Enjoy the weekend and the never-ending summer (at least here, in Germany)