That took a bit longer time than expected to write an update on XMR.
We are, however, in a perfect position to write this update.
Just look at the chart:The author doesn’t like that the wave (ii) was so long where the wave (iv) is so short. But that is the only concern. The rest of the patter is a pretty nice 5 waves move. As we are now in the typical retracement zone, the chances are high that the trend up will continue soon.
Generally, we are preparing the next slightly updated version of http://santiment.net, based on what we learned in this iteration. The response till now is positive and strong. The author has now full hands of things to do. Luckily there are already few people who are actively helping. The next iteration is planned for the middle-end of the next week.
Today and tomorrow we can talk charts again. First ETH and then tomorrow XMR.
Basically, they both are at the decisive point, XMR seems to be finishing its correction where ETH is trying to jump up.
The author present a slightly bearish view today. Having enough positive news, let us be critical and contrarian.
Basically, the bullish case for ETH demands the break up of the slightly falling down trend line. As long as it hasn’t happen, there is chance of another drop.
As mentioned several times on these pages, I’ve been preparing the soil for a sentiment tool/platform for the crypto markets. This is one reason I haven’t been able to post as much as I used to a few months ago.
A few words to give more insight into what we’re going to do (and why):
After working in the financial area for around 10 years, I’ve realized that being able to read emotions and mass psychology are key to making sound financial decisions. Combined with a strong understanding of fundamentals for specific products (or coins, as we say in crypto land), one can not only survive in this wild-west environment, but also be pretty successful.
I also believe this should be a community effort, in the spirit of decentralization. United by the same goals and intentions, we can achieve great results together.
To be clear though… this doesn’t mean “social trading”, or doing what others think will happen. I don’t believe this kind of trading works at all. To “follow the crowd” is the best way to lose your money long-term. The kind of community work I’m advocating with Santiment is different, and I think that if its organized in a proper way, it can bring amazing results.
Today no charts, just text update before going to sleep.
The author spent quite some time the last few days, trying to investigate the ETH sentiment. After posting and talking in reddit, here is the outcome.
There are basically two tendencies.
One group of traders sees no chance that ETH can go significantly lower. There is a consensus, that the bottom is build and no way we will ever see even 0.017. Fortunately, this is not the only sentiment, otherwise the author would be tempted to sell the major part of his ETH holdings. This kind of one-sided expectation is very dangerous. If even it is based on strong fundamentals.
But as we said, fortunately, there is another pretty big part of traders, who are very cautious and don’t expect any big rise. 13 $, maximum 14 $. Some of them are out of ETH at all, as it is much more interesting to invest into other crypto assets.
Some of our predictions are working better, some aren’t so good.
For the secondary markets (secondary for us, ETH lovers) everything looks fine, just in line of what we expect to happen.
Monero (XMR) working its way to finish the correction. We are planning an update soon on XMRBTC. ETC is also keep moving to the direction of the full capitulation. Where BTC, in its turn, is aiming to visit 670-700 USD (can also be higher). You can read here our initial expectations on ETC and BTC from few weeks ago.