Today we look closely at BTC vs. ETC.
Why does author place them against each other? Isn’t it that ETC is somehow fighting for what they assume “ETH has lost”, so basically fighting against ETH?
Actually, not. ETH hasn’t lost anything, it’s gaining more and more traction of what its real goal is. As the author wrote in the subreddit: “Ethereum. Applications on the blockchain. governed by the decentralized community” it is going to be the real (r)evolution.
But back to BTC and ETC.
There is one important similarity between them. Namely, the lack of innovations and even resistance to it.
The subtle confirmation for a smart investor is the decision of ETC community to stay in PoW (proof-of-work) and resistance to switch to PoS (proof-of-stake). Besides, quite obscure comments in ETC subreddit, where the people clearly demand just to take and use the code from ETH developers. These messages just add more spices to the already strange dish. All these should be a big “warn” sign for any reasonable investor. Well, the author doubts there is any serious investor in ETC anyway..
BTC also has shown similar resistance to innovation (or inability to develop and deploy them).
So, both of them are somehow not willing/able to innovate.
But even more important. If the systems goal isn’t to innovate, why the people are investing money into it? Well.. That is good question, indeed.
The answer is pretty simple. You either invest in innovation or you gamble.
BTC and ETC are both gamblers paradise.
One (BTC) is older and with more resources. Another (ETC) is younger, more dynamic. This difference is easy to notice on price volatility.
But who will win?
Let’s check the chart. It’s amazing how many questions can be answered with Elliott Waves glasses.
First, BTC (lets show respect to the older one).As long-term readers remember, we were expecting this drop from triangle for quite some time. Now it happened and, check the chart, the extension of the wave (c) is Fibonacci 0.618 of the wave (a).
If anyone would ask the author: “give us in one sentence analysis for BTC”, the answer would be “it’s gonna rise to at least 670”. However, one more sentence should be added. If we go above 700 (is very likely) expect to see the new high, at least above 800 USD.
Now, that doesn’t look like our “aging guy” is going to die soon.
So let us turn to ETC, young and weird one.As you see on the chart, the emotions in ETC is pretty easy to read. When we were making the top, the optimism was extremely high with many believe ETC can replace ETH at once. This and also almost finished 5 waves structure let the author to call for the possible top at around 0.0065. The voices in ETC land have become more quiet since them. Still, it’s far from being depressed.
This is, however, how financial markets work. They move (taking Elliott Waves shapes) between extreme optimism and deep pessimism.
We need yet to see this deep pessimism in ETC. So the author doubts the decline is over. At least the famous “Pump and Dump” master for penny stocks Barry Silbert isn’t giving up (https://twitter.com/barrysilbert). Not yet. When we see here the complete give up (or he is suddenly interested in some other coin), we could consider the bottom in ETC.. If there is any life sign in ETC at this point is another question..
Bottom line. As it stays now, it looks more likely that BTC will win this fight. The ETC will disappear, BTC will make new high. At the same time ETH..
What will show up in ETH, we will cover in one of the next updates.
Enjoy the “suddenly” returned summer time. Everything keeps changing, indeed..