Before the fork

As said in the last few posts, the ETH had to rise. So it did. Reading the forums and trader rooms it’s clear that for quite some participants it was a surprise, but nor for you, dear subscriber. Based solely on Elliott Waves and sentiment analysis, it was possible for us (the author consider himself and the readers as “us”) to make a correct “bull” call when we were in a strict minority.

What now?

Before we dive into ETH, let us post the announced chart for BTC, where triangle has almost been formed:BTCUSDMidTermWhatever the smaller movements are, the Elliott Waves picture is pretty clear here: we need another 5 waves down.

May be we should leave this beast (BTC) for some time alone and come back when the break down will take place. We will check the more precise targets then and see if that is just a deep correction (with the consequent rise) or something else.

Now back to ETH and it’s fork. As you all know, the community voted positively for the hard-fork. And as the author mentioned few times, this part was easy to predict. The price, however, has its own destiny and dynamic and a bit more difficult to estimate.

Let us see the current Elliott Waves structure:ETHBTCShortTermWe had already a-b-c on the way up from the last bottom at 0.014, which basically makes the current rise a “corrective” structure. And the author would like to keep it as a main pattern for the moment. The rise, however, doesn’t seem to be completed. After this initial “a-b-c” we had a correction down “a-b-c” and another leg up (marked 1 or a).

For this structure to be completed at the minimum one more rise above the 0.01870 is required. Therefore our chart got a beautiful yellow arrow today.

And few words about the “sentiment” again. Surely we’ve got plenty of moon-kids again. However, they are much more cautious now. The talks about ATH are projected somewhere into the distant future and the talks about the drop and the persistence of bear trend in the mid-term are still active.

If this sentiment will persist, it would remind one of that famous “walls of worry”. The last and the biggest one was after the stock crash in 2007. This “wall of worry” followed the whole rise till the recent time.

We will keep an eye on it. The “walls of worry” are the best sentiment fuel to sustain the rise. Because it means there will be enough traders, willing to go short and then forced to close their positions. And there will be enough smart investors, who are able to look through the emotional background and make smart decisions.

Anyway, it’s a really long-term strategy and we need to wait and see first how the hard-fork will come through.

Take care and let us not to be deceived by the emotions.

The Elliott Wave Principle describes the behaviour of the financial markets. This Principle is build on the mass psychology swings from pessimism to optimism and back in a natural sequence. When these swings happen, the specific Elliott wave patterns in price movements are created and become visible. Each pattern has implications regarding the position of the market within its overall progression, past, present and future.
The purpose of our blog posts is to outline the progress of markets in terms of the Elliott Wave Principle.
While a course of conduct regarding investments can be formulated from such application of the Wave Principle, at no time will my posts make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended.
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Author: Ravno_108

Sentiment wave rider. Product creator. Yogi

4 thoughts on “Before the fork”

    1. Indeed!

      I guess it happened because in Yoga and Meditation both colours have very similar meaning. So after these years I don’t distinguish them anymore.

      Hehe, I will be more precise in describing the visual reality from now on!


  1. Has the fractal pattern continued? The 3rd rally (ending July 15th) seems to have the same price change as there was from the bottom on July 5th to the top of the 2nd rally on July 8th.


    1. It’s interesting that you talk about the fractals. Indeed, I’m following a potential one.
      It’s however something else, may be will publish in a next update.

      What you noticed isn’t 100 % perfect example of a fractal.
      Normally it should be either on different time-scales or in different directions.
      For instance you see a pattern on 4hr chart and then suddenly almost the same on 30 min.
      Or you see the market moving in one direction in a specific way and then, ops, almost the same (or very similar) in the opposite one.

      However, what you noticed can also be the case.
      I still remember the EURUSD from around 8 years ago.
      It just kept repeating one pattern over and over almost one week long.

      So, may be you are right too =)


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