Deceiving moves

The author saw and experienced many times already how the market is tricking us (the participants). Sometimes it even feels like the only reason for the financial markets to exist is to deceive the people. Especially true when one believes that the price will just continue in the current direction. As soon as you see around this kind of sentiment, alertness is required.

The move (down) we see now in ETH was needed. For the same reason, to deceive the traders. Now they are a bit scared to go long. Though it’s most probable the right idea. If not right now, then may be tomorrow. However, even after the possible rise right up to the 0.024, the next move will most probable be down again.

Ok, enough words. The charts basically remained the same as in the last post with graphics.

We will look into the updated version of BTC today. And tomorrow in the evening we will check the ETH.BTCUSDMidTerm

After the initial 5 waves down we see the nicely formed double zigzag (w-x-y). The move thereafter doesn’t really look like the 5 waves down, so it opens door for several interpretations for the short-term. Based on the fact that corrections are many in shapes, it’s pretty useless activity trying to find out which one exactly is under development right now. The most important message is: BTC should continue decline and go under 560 USD. This decline can happen from the current level or BTCUSD can rise to slightly above 700 USD and then fall to the mentioned goal.

If you are indeed in this trade, keep your position size accordingly. Because this bearish case will be invalidated only if BTC will go above 790 USD. This level is quite far away now, so your position size should reflect this SL (stop-loss) level. As we are in a money management topic in this post, the author would advise to calculate the position in a way, that you never lose more than 5 % of your capital in one trade. If you can really manage the emotions, connected to the risk, you could try 10 %. If your emotions are too strong and prevents you from “trading your plan”, decrease it to 2 %. Find your risk level. Otherwise you will burn out your nerve system pretty fast. And then you will start looking for the reasons somewhere outside. May be market manipulators will suddenly appear as a reasonable explanation, may be the author of this blog gave your poor trading idea or may be something else. In the reality, however, it was just too much risk, which wasn’t controlled. Poor money managment is almost always the reason for the failure.

No idea why we went into this area. May be it is a sign the author needs to stop writing for today and go sleeping. Or may it’s time to do something beyond the scope of just Elliott Waves analysis. Time will tell.

Take care. Till tomorrow.

The Elliott Wave Principle describes the behaviour of the financial markets. This Principle is build on the mass psychology swings from pessimism to optimism and back in a natural sequence. When these swings happen, the specific Elliott wave patterns in price movements are created and become visible. Each pattern has implications regarding the position of the market within its overall progression, past, present and future.

The purpose of our blog posts is to outline the progress of markets in terms of the Elliott Wave Principle.
While a course of conduct regarding investments can be formulated from such application of the Wave Principle, at no time will my posts make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended.

Very important. Investing carries risk of losses. You should be aware of all the risks associated with investing/trading financial instruments. Information provided in this blog is expressed in good faith, but it is not guaranteed.
The market service that never makes mistakes does not exist. Long-term success trading or investing in the markets demands recognition of the fact that error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities.

This blog and the information provided here should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions.
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Author: Ravno_108

Sentiment wave rider. Product creator. Yogi

12 thoughts on “Deceiving moves”

        1. No. Never came across anyone who could motivate me to learn harmonics =)
          Besides, few examples I saw from other people were quite similar to Elliott Waves. Looked like some specific pattern is taken and applied over and over again.

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  1. Right now, not the market is in play, it’s a technical discussion, if it’s going to be a softfork or a hardfork. the problem is, that the ethereum foundation is not giving a clear answer to the network. vbut should lead clearer. it’s fear, uncertainty and doubt (fud) and a lot of trolls over in the subreddits.

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    1. Good points, agree with you on it. The reasons you mentioned are the great background for the people to do chaotic tradind desicions. Good that you mention it. How did you feel yesterday after all this (potential attack vector, fud and trolls) happened?

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        1. Yeah, understand. I also wonder sometimes. Do the trolls/FUDers do what they do on purpose? Or are they really just very strongly emotion-driven and act as they post?

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      1. i’m a long term investor and holding. i don’t give a s*it what other people saying, specially btc-trolls. i’m a little worried though about the behaviour of vitalik buterin, there are no answers nor a presence from him in these times. and i’m worried of the behaviour of the dao/slock.it-crew, stephan tual to mention. he should be removed from that team. he made and his presence will make things worse. that is my personal view, i never trusted this guy, the reason why i didn’t put a nickel in the dao.

        i’m for the hardfork solution. do it and let’s forget this bs.

        the reason, why i’m reading your blog is the fact, that you’re trying to be positive on the development, there is no fud. but the elliot-wave theory is a theory and in my view guesswork. i expressed that in /r/ethtrader. but keep up the optimistic view on things, brightens my day when i see people not freaking out or screaming “moon” everytime there is a dip or spike in a chart.

        thanks for this blog.

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        1. Ok, I see. Thanks for your words, I indeed like to support positive vibes. Will keep doing it, mate. I do beleive we can make our life better with the current tech.
          Speaking about Vitalik. I also just checked his twitter, no more news after the 25-th of June. May be he is busy and has nothing to say right now. You know, sometimes it’s better to be quiet. But good point. Normally he is more active online.
          About the DAO, slock.it and Stefan.. Heh, poor guy. Will be very hard for him to gain again trust and respect from the whole community.
          But interesting that you say you never trusted him. Why?
          May be we can learn something from your experience..

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      2. I guess, we are lucky that attack vector was found before soft fork “go live”.
        But it’s disappointing that we almost had a great fail again. And this wouldn’t be only a smart contract issue. It would put the whole system at risk. I wonder why ethereum devs weren’t ones who find the issue first and rise a flag. Looks like soft fork was rushed without enough thinking in advance.
        I think such subsequent incident could decrease trust in Ethereum devs competence.

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        1. Good points..
          Now when you say, I also have a feeling that Ethereum need to find a way how to elevate the quality of the platform (and also smart contracts on it) on a higher level.

          Oh, may be I should offer myself to Ethereum team? I used to be in a Quality Assurance role in one fintech startup. Actually liked it quite a lot. Trying to stay positive in a yogic way but still keep discovering unexpected failures =)
          What I want to say, sometimes what a team need is not just a bunch of cool devs, but few people with unusual skills. Who can help them to see the whole product in a new light. Or lead it from “problem point A” to “the desired point B”

          Anyway, you are right in a sense that we need to see some change.
          Let’s wait and see in which form it comes.

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