The death of the DAO

What a day today.. As the author was talking about “the wave is coming … is almost come it comes” the last few weeks, he had little idea what exactly will happen. Now when he saw what was taking place during the day, few words could describe the mixture of feelings, thoughts and visions how all this can end. The author even had some difficulties to focus on the yoga practice, so much had to be perceived and processed.

Talking about the yoga. There was a post few weeks ago about similarities between the yoga (real, old, authentic one) and the way “the DAO” was financed. There was placed so much energy (finances) into “the DAO” that it would definitely have some interesting side-effects. The author said that in the yoga we do very similar practice, push our body and mind to the limit to make the transformation happen. Nowadays there is a saying “leave the comfort zone”. This “leaving” has a good reason, namely that the transformation is always taking place outside of the “comfort zone”. And this transformation is mostly quite painful. Simply because the real change means something is left behind (it actually becomes “dead”) so that the new “something” can take its place and appear (be born).

Now the Ethereum is going through very deep transformation, becoming more of the platform it is supposed to be. And “the DAO” with its over 200 mln. $ was needed to make this transformation happen. As the result of this transformation “the DAO” will be (or actually already is) dead. But “something” new will appear. Let us be surprised what exactly will come out of the void.

The author thinks that making this step, where the core team wasn’t afraid of acting “centralised” is exactly what was missing. You can read and hear “Ethereum followed the path of too big to fail” and that Ethereum team tried to save the “failed” DAO. This is all bullshit. The team did exactly what had to be done. They showed they not only have guts but also able to communicate in a transparent way.

If we want to establish trust in the platform, we need to show clearly that the team is ready to act. The bugs (like this one in “the DAO” or any other in the future) can and will definitely appear again. This is not the absence of programming mistakes, which isn’t possible to archieve, but the reaction to the mistake, which is of importance. The team should act fast, clear and transparent. Not in a way how central banks were (and still are) doing their strange businesses (which no one can understand and control) and not how some maximalist are wishing in crypto universe (leave everything to the market wild forces). But exactly in between, “the middle way”. Exactly how Vitalik and Co. have acted today.

Ok. Enough words, let us see some charts.

There were some conflicting signals in the charts. After the drop today in ETHBTC the biggest one is solved:ETHBTCMidTermAs mentioned in many previous posts, there were these damn 5 waves down, which should be (according to the Elliott Waves theory) continued on the way down. Now this structure finally looks completed (or nearly so).

As long as we don’t drop below the red line here:ETHBTCLongTermthe immediate outcome is bullish.

We will check the ETHEUR and ETHUSD charts in the next post.

For now take care and make clever decisions. Risk only as much as you are ready to lose. The risks are high in crypto investments. Some of them are even still unknown to us.

The Elliott Wave Principle describes the behaviour of the financial markets. This Principle is build on the mass psychology swings from pessimism to optimism and back in a natural sequence. When these swings happen, the specific Elliott wave patterns in price movements are created and become visible. Each pattern has implications regarding the position of the market within its overall progression, past, present and future.
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Author: Ravno_108

Sentiment wave rider. Product creator. Yogi

6 thoughts on “The death of the DAO”

  1. “The team did exactly what had to be done.” My thoughts exactly. It’s why I increased my stake in ETH today and intend to keep doing so as I can, and as the tides open for it.

    Thanks for the thoughtful post, Ravno. I’ll need to take some time to absorb all of it but good thing it is a Friday and life here has quieted down (at least for today). I understand the emotions. Being part of something revolutionary, won’t be easy. But I try to tell myself, when the pain of growth is especially sharp, that it is a sign that something awesome is around the corner. The stronger the pain, the more exceptional the outcome will be. It has worked out that way every time for me so far… so I hope the same for all of you too, for all us on this wild ride.


  2. ravno, if we really have that wave 3 to .045 i will do something awesome for you lol.

    unfortunately, i think there is almost no chance of it. today was a very sad day for ethereum.


  3. I resonated with a reddit post on the daily thread I want to share at:

    “Things are progressing nicely. I have updated my bubble chart to reflect the overnight price action in context:
    Sentiment yesterday was clearly Denial and today feels more like the Bull Trap as people think we’re getting back to normal. I predict Fear within 36 hours.
    We may climb a little today as the shock wears off, before resuming the move towards mid-low single digits once the reality sets in. The possibility of a fork instantly flooding the market with an overwhelming supply for ETH for which there is now significantly less demand is the catalyst for the next major move down. Simple Price Elasticity demonstrates that the price will collapse sharply with such a vast oversupply – essentially imagine taking much the ETH from the pre-DAO pump and then making it available to the market instantaneously rather than over a month.”

    I don’t know how the recent price action fits with the Elliot Waves, but so far the ‘shorts’ didn’t have any real reason for relentless selling other than sentiment. With this debacle, there is a great catalyst to bring this down a lot. Obviously I am a long term believer, but I did sell into the correction (0.014-0.017) and have bid orders spread out over 0.009-0.013 just in case.


    1. This is one possibility, yes.

      I will post tomorrow another one =)

      I wouldn’t however pay too much attention to supply. Generally it would sound plausible, yes. But I doubt that this is the main concern for the market now.


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