Let’s talk more about bitcoin

Thanks for the given feedback in regards of the experiment yesterday. The author thinks he knows now what to do with an idea to post more frequent updates. It needs a bit more time to digest (and meditate over it).

Now, before we switch to Bitcoin (the author will explain why it is important now) let us first say at least few words about our beloved ETH.

Though it is possible that we already have the top in place, the author prefers the following count:ETHBTC-MidTermThe author likes several aspects of this Elliott Waves count. Firstly, the 5 waves move (in orange) simply looks perfect. Extended 3-d wave, the corrective 2-d and 4-th waves are of different shapes: wave 2 deep and slow, wave 4 is quite shallow and swift. Really, it looks beautiful. If the author is right, then we need to complete the 4-th wave of one bigger degree (green colour). Thereafter one final push to the possibly ATH (all time high), be it in terms of BTC, USD, EUR or all of them.

That would make “THE top” perfect. The author believes if ETH behaves in this way and reaches today or tomorrow ATH “the sky is limit” will be the mood of the crowd. Which is most probably true in long-term.

But short to midterm the rise in ETH is like “…And you shall go down before me“.

Who is “me”?

Well, Bitcoin is this “me”. Yes, yes, Bitcoin.Please, don’t throw the stones to the author. Listen to what he has to say =)

Some time ago we posted a chart for BTC, claiming the decline should continue (you can read that post here), so let us first publish an update to it:BTCUSD-MidTerm

Decline continued and author believes is not over yet. One more shallow rise and final dump would draw the perfect picture.

But.

The sentiment is amazingly pessimistic at the moment. For instance, is anyone who is reading this blog, consider buying BTC? No? Why? Too many bad news for poor bitcoin? The core development team isn’t doing anything what they are supposed to do? Halvening event will bring destruction to the whole network? Or may be Ethereum is on its way to replace Bitcoin from the top of the cryptoworld or completely out of the crypto space? All of them can be right.

But.

You buy when everyone is scared of. You sell when everyone is extremely excited. The author believes we are very close to this point.

The point where everyone would only like to have ETH and get rid of all BTC.

Stay high (or tuned, depends on your life style) and take care.

The Elliott Wave Principle describes the behaviour of the financial markets. This Principle is build on the mass psychology swings from pessimism to optimism and back in a natural sequence. When these swings happen, the specific Elliott wave patterns in price movements are created and become visible. Each pattern has implications regarding the position of the market within its overall progression, past, present and future.
The purpose of our blog posts is to outline the progress of markets in terms of the Elliott Wave Principle.
While a course of conduct regarding investments can be formulated from such application of the Wave Principle, at no time will my posts make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended.
Very important. Investing carries risk of losses. You should be aware of all the risks associated with investing/trading financial instruments. Information provided in this blog is expressed in good faith, but it is not guaranteed.
The market service that never makes mistakes does not exist. Long-term success trading or investing in the markets demands recognition of the fact that error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities.
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Author: Ravno_108

Sentiment wave rider. Product creator. Yogi

18 thoughts on “Let’s talk more about bitcoin”

  1. Thanks — great analysis! I recognize the sentiment (bad BTC, good ETH), I’m uncomfortable holding BTC myself these days.
    By the way, I totally agree what Kim said in her reply yesterday — don’t feel obligated to post; if may take the fun away for you and we want you to be around in the long run!

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      1. Oh, no, you cook yourself. I just pick up the best products from the mark and chop them in front of your greedy eyes 😛 But eventually you’l get some cookie from me too =)

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  2. Mmmm cookies. I knew this was the place to hang out.

    Thx for publishing the BTC chart. I was just looking at your previous chart, thinking I might buy more BTC at the bottom and scoot it over to ETH when that comes down. So cheaper BTC is good with me (if I’m understanding this right). Basically I’ve been using BTC as a “hoppity hop” between USD and ETH, as I’m unaware of a direct USD to ETH mechanism at the moment other than wire, which is too slow and pricey (Gemini isn’t available here in WA state yet, and I’m tapping my foot waiting for ETH on Coinable).

    As far as today, it looks like the correction you predicted is maybe happening? And then we enter the last week of the DAO next week, and I just noticed the next price phase is 9 hrs away (its 5pm here, Pacific Time). Didn’t the last ETH pump correlate with the last price phase? Which would match your chart to take one more rise to around .036ish before bigger correction.

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    1. hi Kim, I think most people use btc as a hoppity between usd and eth. Even if direct usd-eth is possible (less liquid though), it is still better to trade btc-eth for US taxed individuals. This way, the gains (obviously, visitors of this website will only see profits and occasional cookies) will get taxed as ‘long term’ capital gains. As soon as you trade btc/eth against usd/eur/etc it becomes a short term trade (when held less than a year) (taxed as normal income, so less favorable).

      I just noticed that our guru nicely drew the circled iv at about 0.02950, which it just touched — pretty neat!

      I think the big push of the DAO is that 14% of all ether is locked up, so ‘supply-demand’-wise that pushes price up. Not sure to what extend the daily increments push up (I suppose the big money is already in). Other factors are adoption of coinbase and speculation for okcoin (and the many publications everywhere). Let’s see what the night brings!

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      1. Don’t pay too much attention to supply-demand talks. Markets are driven by mass psychology. It means fear and greed. One day they (crowd) is talking about lack of supply, but in the reality it’s a way to rationalize the rising market and their greed. On other day (even though the supply is still shallow), they will talk about unability of the DAO to invest wisely (when the market will be falling and they will need to find a reason to be a fearful). See through. Somewhere deep inside there is a closer look at the reality… And may be a cookie can be found too =)

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    2. Yes, indeed, looks like wave 4 (green colour) is in action now. Time is the most difficult part to predict in Elliott Waves. I personally often make mistakes on it. But let’s see if your assumption is right..

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  3. >Stay high (or tuned, depends on your life style) and take care.

    I actually was high in December 2015, when I made a decision to invest significantly in Ethereum 😉 After reading technical info, watching Ethercasts videos it became clear in which direction winds are blowing.
    Probably that was on of my best decisions.

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      1. I was holding for several months, then converted back to fiat initial investment and now trying some trading with mixed outcomes including buying at tops and selling on bottoms. I’m considering moving ETH from exchange to a cold storage and just holding.
        Also it would be interesting lo learn developing smart contracts. I’m a software developer who spent more than 10 years on database development for financial institutions. So blockchain looks like a DB evolution and this fits well to my area of interest 🙂
        I’m looking forward for Swarm and Whisper functionalities of Ethereum to go mainstream.

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        1. Hehe, buying the tops and selling te bottoms is the most common game among traders, so you aren’t alone =)
          Here Elliott Waves could be of great help..

          Interesting also, that you are considering to take a closer look at Ethereum programming.
          As a former developer I’m thinking about it too, but for the moment still very busy with investment activities.
          Anyway, wish you a luck with both: trading and programming!

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