Almost every time when we are calling for trend change (be it a top or a bottom), it’s a special feeling. The emotions among the traders are getting more and more extreme. The author feels it is trying to help them to navigate through this special time.
There is one very important point to mention, however.
Please, don’t use the reports here for aggressively shorting the market. The reason is following. The author believes the ETH is in a long-term bull market. We publish this chart from time to time (for instance here), now take a look at it once again:
So, yes, we will most probably see 0.03 then 0.04 and 0.05 and so on.
Will it happen right now? Unlikely. Why? Simply because we still see the current Elliott Waves structure either to be completed or almost so.
But we also mentioned on these pages before. The ETH (and BTC too) are behaving often like commodities, not like currencies. It means they often have extended 5-th waves (check again the chart above). So, don’t get you caught on this extended move. If you are short, will be quite unpleasant. And can be expensive too.
Now, back to Elliott Waves.
Are the 5 waves we are tracking since some time still our prefered count? Yes. However. After the last days action we are considering to change the structure quite dramatically. Have a look here:
The whole structure looks much better now.. We divided it into separate 3 waves moves (“a-b-c”). See how nicely the wave “c” is in every case extends the wave “a” with Fibonacci 2.618? This is kind of perfection one always has to look for when dealing with Elliott Waves. As a side-note, we do have truncation and failures but even they represent the perfection, the perfection in sentiment which gets skewed to one side extremely.
Now, one can ask: “wait a second, if we have three pairs of ‘a-b-c’ isn’t it a simple correction?”. And the author will reply: “Yes, possible. But not probable at the moment”. The reason is that the shape of the leading wedge at the moment is almost perfect, with even thrust over the upper line in the final leg. And the Elliott Waves is everything about the perfection, right?
If this is what ETH is prepared for us, expect the top to be formed around the current level and then first sharp decline to around 0.02460 with the consequent drop to around 0.019.
We will see how the reality will manifest itself.
As we are in a very important point of market development, expect again the next update in no longer then 24 hours.
Take care. Waiting for the sun to show up again on the german sky =)