As the author mentioned, there was no reason to discuss alternate counts. Now, however, after the current price action the readers could think of “hey, shouldn’t we reconsider the count?”.
Not really. And these are the reasons why.
The correction from the last top (starting from slightly above 0.024) was too short (in price and time) to consider it to be the minor wave 2. Instead we need to change the current count in a way that this last thrust was the final advance to complete the 5-th wave (actually the 5-th of the 5-th):
This kind of thrusts is very typical for two cases: a) triangles b) the third of the third wave.
The author at the moment believes more in the triangle. Looking at the smaller time-frame this Elliott Waves structure (triangle) looks good and feels good:
If this is what the market is trying to tell us, expect the top forming around the current levels (one more high is possible) and then also fast drop to the origin of the triangle thrust:
If, however, the ETHBTC will keep rising and will surpass the 0.026 on still increasing volume, we will need to reconsider the pattern and find a place for the 3-d wave.
For now the market reminded us yet again that in the bull period (and we were in a bull period during the formation of these initial 5 waves up) the surprises can easily happen to the up side. So, even though we do discuss “how deep the correction will go”, we see no reasons to enter the market from the short side. The author himself closed his long positions, according to the published here analyses at around 0.024 and was waiting for a pullback to enter it long again. As strong as the temptation now is to rush into the market and buy, the most probable count (finishing the 5 waves up) still holds the author from reentering his longs.
May be the author is wrong, but he saw too many times how fast the market can change and how easily it is possible to destroy the trading capital with just one wrong trade. So, after these almost 10 years in the trading business, it’s always the best approach to stay on a most safe side and don’t over trade. Every trade takes portion of your nerve system.
Stay tuned, the next update will follow soon as we are in an intensive market phase. In case you want to get the notifications as soon as the updates are published, feel free to “subscribe” (somewhere on the right side). No spam or BS mails will ever be sent from the author side.