Awaken again

As the author mentioned, there was no reason to discuss alternate counts. Now, however, after the current price action the readers could think of “hey, shouldn’t we reconsider the count?”.

Not really. And these are the reasons why.

The correction from the last top (starting from slightly above 0.024) was too short (in price and time) to consider it to be the minor wave 2. Instead we need to change the current count in a way that this last thrust was the final advance to complete the 5-th wave (actually the 5-th of the 5-th):ETHBTCMidTerm

This kind of thrusts is very typical for two cases: a) triangles b) the third of the third wave.

The author at the moment believes more in the triangle. Looking at the smaller time-frame this Elliott Waves structure (triangle) looks good and feels good:ETHBTCShortTerm

If this is what the market is trying to tell us, expect the top forming around the current levels (one more high is possible) and then also fast drop to the origin of the triangle thrust:ETHBTCShortTerm-2

If, however, the ETHBTC will keep rising and will surpass the 0.026 on still increasing volume, we will need to reconsider the pattern and find a place for the 3-d wave.

For now the market reminded us yet again that in the bull period (and we were in a bull period during the formation of these initial 5 waves up) the surprises can easily happen to the up side. So, even though we do discuss “how deep the correction will go”, we see no reasons to enter the market from the short side. The author himself closed his long positions, according to the published here analyses at around 0.024 and was waiting for a pullback to enter it long again. As strong as the temptation now is to rush into the market and buy, the most probable count (finishing the 5 waves up) still holds the author from reentering his longs.

May be the author is wrong, but he saw too many times how fast the market can change and how easily it is possible to destroy the trading capital with just one wrong trade. So, after these almost 10 years in the trading business, it’s always the best approach to stay on a most safe side and don’t over trade. Every trade takes portion of your nerve system.

Stay tuned, the next update will follow soon as we are in an intensive market phase. In case you want to get the notifications as soon as the updates are published, feel free to “subscribe” (somewhere on the right side). No spam or BS mails will ever be sent from the author side.

The Elliott Wave Principle describes the behaviour of the financial markets. This Principle is build on the mass psychology swings from pessimism to optimism and back in a natural sequence. When these swings happen, the specific Elliott wave patterns in price movements are created and become visible. Each pattern has implications regarding the position of the market within its overall progression, past, present and future.
The purpose of our blog posts is to outline the progress of markets in terms of the Elliott Wave Principle.
While a course of conduct regarding investments can be formulated from such application of the Wave Principle, at no time will my posts make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended.
Very important. Investing carries risk of losses. You should be aware of all the risks associated with investing/trading financial instruments. Information provided in this blog is expressed in good faith, but it is not guaranteed.
The market service that never makes mistakes does not exist. Long-term success trading or investing in the markets demands recognition of the fact that error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities.
This blog and the information provided here should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions.
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Author: Ravno_108

Sentiment wave rider. Product creator. Yogi

8 thoughts on “Awaken again”

  1. Thanks again for your continued guidance! I managed to restrain the temptation to go back and buy more (actually sold a bit more instead). From the forums, I have the impression that the WSJ article (and refreshed OK-coin hope) has fueled this rally. In the past such rallies were short-lived. Sell orders on Polo are quickly picking up as well. But let’s see where this goes.


  2. I didn’t tell that one should sell =) Don’t forget, as we are in a long-term bull trend, the surpises are coming on the way up. Check the history of Bitcoin. Can happen anytime to ETH too. So, if even you really want to go sell, make sure you have some reasonable stops.


    1. My mistake in the past has been to hodl too much, so now I’m trying to take some profits (not shorting) at reasonable points with decent probabilities of buying back lower — with your great guidance! ๐Ÿ™‚
      It it continues up, that is still fine, I have more to sell! ๐Ÿ™‚


      1. Ok, as I said I can understand you, the pattern indeed looks like at least temporary top. However, we need to remember that trading/investing isn’t a gambling. I try myself to provide some levels or indicators when we need to change our count. You need also to learn how and when to draw the line with the loosing trade.


  3. Let’s hope that you are right ๐Ÿ˜‰
    I’m following your blog for some time and I was surprised how precise your predictions were. So I’m paying more attention to your predictions now ๐Ÿ™‚


    1. Thanks. Lately indeed many predictions were right. But I do make some mistakes from time to time. Market is changing very fast and the most important skill (for analytic) to be able to embrace on these changes. I also hope we are right on the 5 waves pattern now.


  4. ETH gives a new portion of adrenaline today. In 2015 life was calm and slow. Everything changed since I entered the word of digital scarcity.
    It would be interesting to know your thoughts on global situation in the world. When I look at S&P 500 index it looks like it’s approaching cliff’s edge.


  5. Good question. As a matter fact I was trading S&P500, Gold and EURUSD some time ago. The stock market indeed looked quite weak and ready for a nasty decline. May be I will post a report on general/standard markets soon too.
    And yes, after switching to crypto, I also have no desire to come back. Somehow even feel sick just thinking about that old financial world on a cliff’s of a biggest disaster ever (because what the central banks have been doing the last years will definately lead to the disaster and most probably will lead to the world without central banks at all).
    DAO is the future =)


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