The price pattern became a bit more clear in the last days. We still have, however, several possibilities.
First, let us look at this Elliott Waves count:
You see “???”, where the last “bloody sunday” drop stopped. We are still not sure how to interpret the last decline from 0.030. However, it is not always the last price action which is important. One has to reflect upon the previous pattern. And here we have some “good” news. What happened to ETHBTC before looks much more clear.
This decline “A-B-C” is so classic, that we really see no reason to doubt the labeling. Wave C is almost exactly 1.618 of A. All moves were swift, also the waves A and B are clear 5 waves moves. Exactly how it is supposed to be in a “zig-zag” correction.
The rise thereafter (also marked as A-B-C) isn’t that perfect, but still looks good. An alternative for this rise would be a triangle:
We don’t like it that much, mostly because the wave D is too small and it stops too far away from the rising trending line in this triangle. It is still possible, but not very probable.
So, for the moment we stick in our mid-term count to the first picture.
Now, the 1 mln. ETH question is: how to mark the “???” wave ?
We basically consider two counts at the moment. The one, which we like a bit more because of the nice proportions:
And another one, where we like the way how the retraces always reached and stopped in the area of the wave 4 of the previous degree:
In both cases it’s possible that ETHBTC will dip slightly below 0.01740 (the last low) and then will rise.
In a “double zig-zag” case to build the third and the last one zig-zag down.
In the second case to form the wave “b” of the a-b-c Flat (marked as “B”) and then finish this Elliott pattern with “c”. Then it should work its way in the final wave “C”, consisting of 5 waves.
We don’t really have preferencies at the moment. The current sentiment is unfortunately also mixed. On one side the “hope” is still quite strong, people in forums keep telling each other about fundamentals and the bright future of Ethereum. So it doesn’t look like a bottom of the correction. At least not now. On the other side, there are quite a lot of traders too, who only talks about shorting ETH, no doubting at all that it can eventually go higher. Even though it can indeed go higher right now. So may be, if we would have to make a call, based solely on the sentiment (as the Elliott Waves pattern itself is still quite unclear), we would expect market first to rise to 0.023-0.024 and then dive again.
We will see more as we get more of the price action. If we see enough to draw a pattern, we will publish update tomorrow. Otherwise, bear with us or, better to say, accept the market current uncertainty and we will come back on Thursday.
Take care. Plan your trades, trade your plans.