Let the DAO begin

There are two news.

One news is also the reason why we write this update. The mentioned in the last post level 0.018 got broken. Though it took a bit more than expected 12 hours, the volume is exactly as strong as we wanted to see it. Which gives us a strong support for our prefered Elliott Waves count. We will post chart down on the page.

Another news is even bigger. The long-awaited “The DAO” creation started. I’m sure most of you know about it or already invested in it, but for those who aren’t.

https://daohub.org/

The idea behind is indeed revolutionary. To our knowledge it has never happened before that the organisation was funded in such a transparent and decentralized way. For investors it has two possible outcomes: the value of “the DAO” token could grow exponential (and bring huge returns) or the whole idea could fail spectacular. Time will tell which one is for real. But having said that, the writer of this update has also invested some ETH-er into “the DAO”.

Now, back to some charts..

That is the one from yesterday:ETHBTC-ShortTerm

And today we adjusted some goals:ETHBTC-ShortTerm

Our next steps?

Under the current Elliott Waves count the ETHBTC has nothing to do below 0.01710. If it does go below this level we will need to reconsider the count.

So, if the mentioned area 0.01710-0.01720 got broken on the way down.

Or if we see a finished Eliott Waves pattern on the way up.

We will post an update.

Otherwise, expect for our update on Monday.

By the way, you can also easily subscribe to our blog (the button is somewhere on the right side) and get notifications every time we post an update. But it’s up to you.

Take care and enjoy the weekend.

The Elliott Wave Principle describes the behaviour of the financial markets. This Principle is build on the mass psychology swings from pessimism to optimism and back in a natural sequence. When these swings happen, the specific Elliott wave patterns in price movements are created and become visible. Each pattern has implications regarding the position of the market within its overall progression, past, present and future.
The purpose of our blog posts is to outline the progress of markets in terms of the Elliott Wave Principle.
While a course of conduct regarding investments can be formulated from such application of the Wave Principle, at no time will my posts make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended.
Very important. Investing carries risk of losses. You should be aware of all the risks associated with investing/trading financial instruments. Information provided in this blog is expressed in good faith, but it is not guaranteed.
The market service that never makes mistakes does not exist. Long-term success trading or investing in the markets demands recognition of the fact that error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities.
This blog and the information provided here should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions.
In no event will we be liable for any loss or damage on your account in connection with the use of our publications.
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Just one chart

Dear friends, our initial plan was to publish more Elliot Waves charts and patterns.

But.

Instead we think this one is enoughETHBTC-ShortTerm

For the moment it’s our prefered Elliott Waves count. If we are right in our analysis, that thing (ETHBTC) should break somewhere in the next 12 hours strongly above 0.018

Depending on how volume, sentiment will be during this move we will hopefully be able to recognise the potential.

On the other side, if we break below 0.01520, we will need to reconsider the count.

Stay tuned and take care, we will publish the next update after one of this level is broken.

The Elliott Wave Principle describes the behaviour of the financial markets. This Principle is build on the mass psychology swings from pessimism to optimism and back in a natural sequence. When these swings happen, the specific Elliott wave patterns in price movements are created and become visible. Each pattern has implications regarding the position of the market within its overall progression, past, present and future.
The purpose of our blog posts is to outline the progress of markets in terms of the Elliott Wave Principle.
While a course of conduct regarding investments can be formulated from such application of the Wave Principle, at no time will my posts make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended.
Very important. Investing carries risk of losses. You should be aware of all the risks associated with investing/trading financial instruments. Information provided in this blog is expressed in good faith, but it is not guaranteed.
The market service that never makes mistakes does not exist. Long-term success trading or investing in the markets demands recognition of the fact that error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities.
This blog and the information provided here should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions.
In no event will we be liable for any loss or damage on your account in connection with the use of our publications.

5 up on ETHBTC

Just a short update. We see a very good, clear 5 waves up with (almost) finished correction:ETHBTC-ShortTerm

It has divergence in the 5-th wave, which is very typical and we always looking for it before declare the move as the 5 waves. The volume was the strongest in the 3-d wave, which is also very typical for motive waves. Also the Fibonacci relationships are good.

Now we need to wait and see if we break that last top at 0.018. Also the volume should dramatically increase.

Take care.

The Elliott Wave Principle describes the behaviour of the financial markets. This Principle is build on the mass psychology swings from pessimism to optimism and back in a natural sequence. When these swings happen, the specific Elliott wave patterns in price movements are created and become visible. Each pattern has implications regarding the position of the market within its overall progression, past, present and future.
The purpose of our blog posts is to outline the progress of markets in terms of the Elliott Wave Principle.
While a course of conduct regarding investments can be formulated from such application of the Wave Principle, at no time will my posts make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended.
Very important. Investing carries risk of losses. You should be aware of all the risks associated with investing/trading financial instruments. Information provided in this blog is expressed in good faith, but it is not guaranteed.
The market service that never makes mistakes does not exist. Long-term success trading or investing in the markets demands recognition of the fact that error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities.
This blog and the information provided here should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions.
In no event will we be liable for any loss or damage on your account in connection with the use of our publications.

Volatality picks up

As we said yesterday, when the sentiment is getting skewed to one extreme, the market will turn.

One way how it is possible to notice, is a growing number of estimations. In our case how low can ETH fall.

(from our post yesterday) —> As we see more and more often the estimation of ETHBTC going far lower (they say at least “0.01”), we know we are close to the turn. It is now somehow almost a “known” fact that the drop further to at least 0.013 is “sure”.

So, the turn did take place. Or did it ?

Today we want to start with a Bitcoin chart. Short-term oneBTCShortTerm

This almost vertical drop is exactly how the 3-d of the 3-d Elliott Wave looks like. Violent and even scary. Is it finished? We don’t think so. We expect two more lows and then the 5 waves move can be considered as finished. There must also be some kind of mental capitulation too.

Time will tell (and this is not a long time. one or maximum two days) if we are witnessing here the turn down for BTC.

Now let us come back to ETH. These two (ETH and BTC) are very strongly correlated at the moment. It doesn’t have to stay in this way all the time, however. Moreover, it will most probably change at some point. But for the moment if one goes down, another one starts growing.

We still prefer, however, looking into the charts and price actions of every market separately. And what do we see in ETHBTC in regards of some Elliott Waves patterns?

The pattern on the short-term doesn’t doesn’t seem to be finished yet, so we’d rather show the mid-term picture:ETHBTC-MidTerm

If our Elliott Waves count is correct, then the move down is finished. Under this count ETHBTC has nothing to do below 0.01510

Do we have an alternate count? Yes, we have:ETHBTC-MidTerm-alt-1

If that is what market is preparing for us, then the further development would be:ETHBTC-MidTerm-alt-2

How probable this outcome? We would give it 40 % at the moment. So much because the sentiment at the bottom wasn’t as fearful as we would like to see it. In case we do make the new low below 0.01510, then the sentiment will definately reach a point where quite some people will start doubting if Ethereum is going to survive at all. (May be even some news will come out which will support this point of view). And as little as 40 % because the internal structure of the 5 waves move (a) far from being perfect. It still looks much better as a combination of three waves moves.

Regarding the bad news. They can also come at any time during this initial rise from the last low.

So, stay tuned. The price action in the next week will be interesting to see.

It will also be exciting to see how the market will react to the so long-awaited Slock.it ICO, which is actually now is called “DAO Creation” and isn’t Slock.it only anymore. For those who is still unaware what is happening here, highly recommended to visit at least this site – http://daohub.org. There is also this nice discussion on reddit (there are much more available) – https://www.reddit.com/r/ethereum/comments/4goyix/the_dao_a_rebel_without_a_cause/

We hoped you enjoyed reading this a bit longer version of our regular Elliott Waves Analysis for Ethereum.

We feel like the friday is a good day to publish the next one.

Take care and learn (as we also do) from the market behaviour directly. The more you understand the market, the better and better decisions you can make.

The Elliott Wave Principle describes the behaviour of the financial markets. This Principle is build on the mass psychology swings from pessimism to optimism and back in a natural sequence. When these swings happen, the specific Elliott wave patterns in price movements are created and become visible. Each pattern has implications regarding the position of the market within its overall progression, past, present and future.
The purpose of our blog posts is to outline the progress of markets in terms of the Elliott Wave Principle.
While a course of conduct regarding investments can be formulated from such application of the Wave Principle, at no time will my posts make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended.
Very important. Investing carries risk of losses. You should be aware of all the risks associated with investing/trading financial instruments. Information provided in this blog is expressed in good faith, but it is not guaranteed.
The market service that never makes mistakes does not exist. Long-term success trading or investing in the markets demands recognition of the fact that error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities.
This blog and the information provided here should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions.
In no event will we be liable for any loss or damage on your account in connection with the use of our publications.

The sentiment is getting ripe

That is not a usual update (with some charts and plenty of text).

Instead, we noticed how almost one-sided sentiment is getting on ETHBTC. We still have long-term believers for ETH but the amount of pessimist is growing rapidly. As we see more and more often the estimation of ETHBTC going far lower (they say at least “0.01”), we know we are close to the turn. It is now somehow almost a “known” fact that the drop further to at least 0.013 is “sure”.

Well, there is no “sure” things in finances.

Everything is just probability.

And we can be wrong too. But we feel that probability for a turn is getting stronger than for a fall to 0.01.

Meanwhile, we are watching the price action very closely and will publish tomorrow the usual detailed post with several charts.

Take care.

Searching for direction

The sunday crazy volatility didn’t take place yesterday. Sorry, friends, we are still in that boring “3 waves” mood.

The last rise (from 0.01710 to 0.01925), for instance, was a nicely formed Elliott Waves pattern, called Flat. From that last top we had also nicely formed “a-b-c” zigzag. Small correction and again we see what we consider to be the wave “a” of another “a-b-c” zigzag down

ShortTerm
Flat, one finished zigzag and one in the process

What does it mean for a bigger time frame?

Actually, quite interestingMidTerm

One has a feeling that these 3 waves moves are getting more and more dense. That is normal, when we deal with the complex correction. And, according to our prefered count, we are in the complex correction from the top of 0.037LongTerm

Now, there is also a story with Bitcoin. which many see as rival to Ethereum (which in our opinion is not). The story is that BTC made a slightly higher high over the weekend. It was easy to see how much euphoria was flowing through the Bitcoin trading communities. The expectations again that we are on the way to first 600, then 1000 and then, well, as usual in cryptoworld, the moon is our goal. Everything is possible, no doubt about it. But we would rather take a closer look into the BTCUSD chart, which we are going to do somewhere during this week.

For now let us stay focused on ETHBTC Elliott Waves patterns. We still need a bit more time to let the current three waves move to finish themself.

Take care, we will publish the next update on Wednesday.

The Elliott Wave Principle describes the behaviour of the financial markets. This Principle is build on the mass psychology swings from pessimism to optimism and back in a natural sequence. When these swings happen, the specific Elliott wave patterns in price movements are created and become visible. Each pattern has implications regarding the position of the market within its overall progression, past, present and future.
The purpose of our blog posts is to outline the progress of markets in terms of the Elliott Wave Principle.
While a course of conduct regarding investments can be formulated from such application of the Wave Principle, at no time will my posts make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended.
Very important. Investing carries risk of losses. You should be aware of all the risks associated with investing/trading financial instruments. Information provided in this blog is expressed in good faith, but it is not guaranteed.
The market service that never makes mistakes does not exist. Long-term success trading or investing in the markets demands recognition of the fact that error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities.
This blog and the information provided here should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions.
In no event will we be liable for any loss or damage on your account in connection with the use of our publications.

The Elliott pattern isn’t clear yet

We could actually just leave the subject as it describes exactly the current situation.

But better to see the chart too:ShortTerm

For the moment it’s the best counted as a double zigzag on the way down from 0.02280 to the last bottom at 0.01710

Combined with the previous very clear (a)-(b)-(c) rise it gives some ideas about what could happen next. Unfortunately, these options are several as the three waves movements in Elliott Waves theory have quite some variations.

In case the ETHBTC will suddenly decide to rise from the current level and will pass the 0.01880 point, the structure shown above will become our main and favorite count.

If the price will keep falling down, we will publish the update and possibly the new count tomorrow.

Besides, we are somehow waiting for sunday, because the last several weeks quite strong moves took place on these days. This phenomena still needs to be researched. May be one of our visitors have any interesting ideas about it? We would be eager to listen to them.

Have a nice start into the weekend.

The Elliott Wave Principle describes the behaviour of the financial markets. This Principle is build on the mass psychology swings from pessimism to optimism and back in a natural sequence. When these swings happen, the specific Elliott wave patterns in price movements are created and become visible. Each pattern has implications regarding the position of the market within its overall progression, past, present and future.
The purpose of our blog posts is to outline the progress of markets in terms of the Elliott Wave Principle.
While a course of conduct regarding investments can be formulated from such application of the Wave Principle, at no time will my posts make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended.
Very important. Investing carries risk of losses. You should be aware of all the risks associated with investing/trading financial instruments. Information provided in this blog is expressed in good faith, but it is not guaranteed.
The market service that never makes mistakes does not exist. Long-term success trading or investing in the markets demands recognition of the fact that error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities.
This blog and the information provided here should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions.
In no event will we be liable for any loss or damage on your account in connection with the use of our publications.